Peru Wildfires Kill 12 as El Niño Threat Grows

Wildfires in Peru's Andes have killed 12 people and injured 832, mostly through burns, the head of the country's National Institute of Civil Defence told a Lima news outlet on Monday. Luis Enrique Vásquez Guerrero, who leads the agency known as Indeci, spoke to Exitosa on 19 October. Twelve fires are still burning; another twelve are under control.

The Toll and the Hot Spots

Vásquez named the dead by region: four in Cusco, three in Cajamarca, two in Apurímac, two in Pasco and one in Puno. Cusco matters well beyond Peru's borders. It’s the gateway to Machu Picchu, and tourism dollars flowing through it keep much of the local economy afloat.

Vásquez called Río Tambo in the central region of Junín the most critical case, with four fires still active. The regions he named account for nine of the 12 active fires: one in Áncash, two each in Apurímac and Cusco, and four in Río Tambo. The report didn’t say where the other three are burning or how many hectares have gone up nationally.

The numbers have shifted quickly. Correo counted six deaths on Thursday 8 October, five in Cusco and one in Puno. Vásquez gave no start date for his tally, and Andina reported a wildfire death in Pasco on Thursday 6 August, so the 12 may cover the entire dry season. Indeci’s written releases haven’t repeated the 12-death figure.

Government Response

Transport Minister José Angello Tangherlini spoke bluntly about the timing. “There are prevention actions that have not been carried out on time,” he told Exitosa. He said El Niño projections had circulated since March 2026. “The previous government had full knowledge of what awaited us with this El Niño phenomenon,” he said.

Exitosa’s published passages name no official from that government. President Keiko Fujimori’s administration took office on 28 July, and Tangherlini said it has focused on preparation given the time lost, because prevention requires permanent works.

He put work at 536 critical points nationwide at 70% complete, the same figure Fujimori gave on Thursday 15 October, according to the state newspaper El Peruano. He also said desilting has restored the Piura River’s channel capacity to a level not seen in 50 years. At the La Leche bridge in Lambayeque, concessionaire IIRSA Norte has started machinery work to clear the riverbed and protect the structure. The Transport Ministry’s 14 October release on his inspection listed channel cleaning and spot repairs. No independent check of the 70% figure or the 50-year claim has turned up.

What Forecasters Expect

ENFEN, Peru’s multi-agency El Niño commission, issued Communiqué 18-2026 on Friday 16 October and placed a “Alert of Coastal El Niño” in force. It expects coastal warming to remain “extraordinary” — 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above normal — until January 2027. Its chart gives a 98% chance of an extraordinary event in October and 95% in November.

The commission expects above-normal rain on the north and central coasts for the rest of 2026. River flows should run above normal from November in the Tumbes, Chira, Piura, La Leche and Jequetepeque rivers. The southern highlands and the Amazon face normal to below-normal rain, and ENFEN warned of water rationing if the central and southern highlands see a rainfall deficit. The communiqué didn’t mention wildfires, and the report found no established link between the fires and El Niño.

On Polymarket, traders put the odds that El Niño’s peak reaches 2.5 or higher on NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index at 72.5% as of 19 October, up 2.5 points in 24 hours. About US$50,400 had traded in that bracket. These are bets, not polls, and they track Pacific warming rather than Peru’s preparations.

Travel and Trade

The U.S. State Department’s Peru advisory, dated 8 September 2026, rates the country Level 2, “Exercise Increased Caution,” and doesn’t mention wildfires or El Niño. Cusco, the Sacred Valley, the Inca Trail and Machu Picchu aren’t in its Do Not Travel areas. Indeci and Defence Ministry fire releases for 5 to 17 October reported no tourist-site, road or rail closure. Travellers booked on treks in Cusco, Apurímac or Puno should ask operators about smoke and access.

Peru is a U.S. free-trade partner under an agreement in force since 1 February 2009. Investors and exporters should watch transport ministry work on rivers and bridges, since above-normal river flows are expected from November.

A Chamber of Deputies release said its infrastructure committee would summon Tangherlini to report on Tuesday 20 October. Whether the session went ahead wasn’t confirmed. ENFEN’s next communiqué is due 30 October.

Why This Matters:

Peru is heading into a forecast extraordinary El Niño with a finished-work claim the public can’t yet verify. The 70% completion figure and the 50-year channel claim both lack independent confirmation, and that’s a problem when river flows are due to climb from November. For exporters and investors in a U.S. trade partner, bridge and riverbed work isn’t abstract. It decides whether goods move and whether insured assets survive. The minister’s admission that prevention came late, and his refusal to name who failed to act, leaves an accountability gap Peru’s Congress will have to press. Governments can’t legislate weather, but they can be judged on whether the money spent and the works promised hold up when the water arrives. The committee hearing and ENFEN’s 30 October update will show whether the numbers stand.