Poland and Hungary are tightening curbs on foreign labour, a shift economists warn could hurt growth prospects in both countries as ruling centrists cave to nationalist pressure on immigration.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, who won in a landslide in April, and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk, in power since 2023, are both taking action to prove their critics wrong. Tusk's government slashed work permits for non-EU citizens by 22% last year, while Hungary's new government in June stopped issuing worker visas to employees from the Philippines, Georgia and Armenia, calling it a first step towards regulating guest workers.
Public opinion polls show broad support for the curbs. In Poland, around two-thirds of respondents in an IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska news website in January said Poland should accept fewer non-EU migrants. In Hungary, an analysis published by Republikon Institute earlier this month showed that almost half of Hungarians would not allow any migrants from poorer countries and another 40% would allow only a smaller number.
The Economic Cost
Marcin Tomaszewski, lead economist for the EU region at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said, "Fewer workers mean slower growth and less tax coming in, while an older population costs more in pensions and health." He added, "Both are ageing before they are rich, and both only recently became places people move to rather than leave."
The Polish Economic Institute forecast in 2024 that Poland, whose labour force already relies on over 1 million foreigners, around two-thirds of whom are Ukrainian, could have 2.1 million fewer workers by 2035, with declines in industry alone potentially knocking 6% to 8% off gross domestic product. A report this year by Deloitte, Ipsos and the Institute of Public Affairs said non-EU workers contributed up to 10.7% of Poland's economic output last year amid birth rates at their lowest since World War Two.
Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk said, "If we changed our status from typical emigration country to migration one, we have to also adjust our whole system of functioning of the society," and added that Poland did not want an economy based largely on cheap labour. In June, the ministry said it had issued eight times fewer work visas in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2022, though that comparison was affected by a change in rules for Ukrainians.
Business Backlash
In Hungary, Magyar became embroiled in a public spat with Master Good, a poultry producer that said it might halt a factory expansion because of the new migration policies. Magyar accused the company, which had received state support, of trying to "threaten the government and the Hungarian people," and said it could hire locally if it paid more. Owner Laszlo Barany said his 580 Filipino staff was essential given an ageing population. He said, "People get old, they retire and there is no demographic supply, while those entering the workforce are not looking for this type of job."
In Poland, businesses complain about long processing times, with work permits taking over six months and residence permit applications taking nearly a year to process, said Nadia Winiarska, deputy director of the labour department at Polish business federation Lewiatan. Rahul Jha, a 35-year-old restaurant owner, said he lost a chef at his South Indian restaurant who got tired after waiting for over a year for a temporary residence permit. "Denmark gave him a five-year visa ... like immediately, a skilled visa. So he just moved out from here," Jha said.
Why This Matters:
Poland and Hungary face a demographic crisis that immigration could help solve — but both governments are choosing short-term political gain over long-term fiscal stability. The numbers are stark: Poland could lose 2.1 million workers by 2035, and non-EU workers already contribute over 10% of economic output. Hungary's poultry sector shows the immediate human cost — skilled workers leaving, expansions halted, and local labour markets unable to fill the gap. The centre-left won power in both countries promising competent governance and European integration, but on migration they're adopting the far right's playbook. The result isn't just slower growth and lower tax revenues. It's skilled workers choosing Denmark over Warsaw, factories stalling investment, and public services stretched thinner as populations age. Europe's demographic winter requires coordinated labour mobility and legal pathways — not visa bans that hurt workers and businesses alike while doing nothing to address the root causes of public anxiety about integration and social cohesion.