Twenty-six percent of people who voted for President Trump in 2024 say the Republican in their district could improve their chances in the midterm elections by turning away from him, according to a Politico-PF Global poll. The finding puts a fracture inside the party on the ballot: candidates are weighing whether their prospects depend on alignment with the president or distance from him.
A split inside the party
Among those Trump voters who said a Republican candidate would do better by breaking with him, 57% said Republicans should split with Trump over the Iran war. Sixty-one percent named the economy, and 67% named immigration and border control. The poll records what respondents think candidates should do; it doesn't establish what those candidates will do.
The poll surveyed 2,001 respondents in early October and had a 2.2% margin of error. Smaller subgroups had larger margins of error, a qualification that matters when reading the 26% figure and the responses from that group. The survey offers a measure of voter opinion, not a tally of campaign decisions.
Less than a month before the midterm elections, Republicans were working to defend seats in Kansas and Iowa that hadn't been considered competitive a few months earlier. The report said Trump's low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the economy were giving Democrats a chance to win in those places. That contest puts ordinary voters' assessments of prices and political performance inside a party struggle over who can hold office.
The price voters say they're paying
Forty-four percent of respondents said their financial situations had gotten worse or much worse since Trump took office the previous year. Twenty-one percent said their situations had gotten better or much better. The poll also found that 59% said groceries, gas and other expenses had become somewhat or much less affordable since Trump took office. That included 40% of Trump's 2024 voters.
Those numbers leave no neat party boundary around economic strain. The poll reports dissatisfaction among respondents, including many who voted for Trump, while candidates and parties face the approaching election. It doesn't describe any community-led response, mutual aid effort or direct action; the account centers on polling and the competition for elected seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, had a 43.8% favorability rating, according to Decision Desk HQ, and hadn't regained popularity among Americans. The figures offer no simple story of an opposition party surging into broad public favor. Republicans may face vulnerability, but the reported alternative remains a contest between party campaigns and candidates seeking office.
Who gets credit for holding power
Asked who should receive credit if Republicans kept their House and Senate majorities in the November elections, 22% said Trump's actions as president. Another 29% said Democrats had run a weak campaign. Twenty-three percent credited strong Republican campaigns and said it wouldn't be because of Trump, while 26% said they didn't know.
The responses divide responsibility for a possible Republican victory among presidential actions, the opposition's performance and Republican campaigning. They also show how the election question is framed: which side deserves credit if it retains control of the House and Senate. The poll measures those judgments, not whether either party's approach will make groceries, gas or other expenses more affordable. On the evidence reported here, voters are being asked to choose among competing political explanations while many say household finances have worsened.