More than one in four people who voted for President Trump in 2024 now say the Republican running in their district would have a better chance in the midterms by turning away from him. That’s the finding of a new Politico-PF Global poll, released less than a month before voters head to the polls.
The figure is 26 percent. It isn’t a majority. Still, it’s striking that so many people in the president’s own coalition want distance, and the result points to where the strain is showing.
Where Trump Voters Want Distance
The poll asked those respondents which issues should lead Republicans to part ways with the president. Their answers track the pressures facing households and the country. Fifty-seven percent said Republicans should break with Trump over the Iran war. Sixty-one percent said the same about the economy. And 67 percent said immigration and border control, long considered a signature strength for the president, gave Republicans grounds to separate from him.
The survey reached 2,001 respondents in early October and had a 2.2 percent margin of error, though the margins grow larger for smaller subgroups like this one.
Kitchen-Table Pressure
The economic numbers help explain the restlessness. Forty-four percent of all respondents said their financial situations had gotten worse or much worse since Trump took office last year. Just 21 percent said things had gotten better or much better.
Cost of living tells a similar story. Fifty-nine percent said groceries, gas and other expenses had become somewhat or much less affordable since Trump took office. That includes 40 percent of Trump’s own 2024 voters. Rising prices aren’t sparing the people who sent him to the White House.
Seats Once Considered Safe Now in Play
Republicans are working to defend seats that looked safe just a few months ago, including Senate seats in Kansas and Iowa. According to the report, Trump’s low approval ratings and widespread dissatisfaction with the economy are giving Democrats an opening in places where they hadn’t expected one.
The picture isn’t simply a Democratic surge, though. Democrats have a 43.8 percent favorability rating, according to Decision Desk HQ, and haven’t regained popularity among Americans.
Who Gets the Credit?
The poll also asked who deserves credit if Republicans hold their House and Senate majorities in November. Twenty-nine percent said Democrats ran a weak campaign. Twenty-six percent said they didn’t know. Twenty-three percent credited strong Republican campaigns, not Trump. Only 22 percent said Trump’s actions as president would deserve the credit.
Put another way, just over one in five respondents would hand the president the victory.
Why This Matters:
The numbers show a gap between what voters are living and what the political class is selling. When 44 percent of Americans say they’re worse off and 59 percent say basic costs have become harder to manage, that points to real strain on household budgets, cutting across party lines. Even 40 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters report feeling it. The poll also shows voters tie their frustrations to concrete policy areas, from the Iran war to immigration, suggesting they expect elected officials to answer for outcomes. Democrats’ weak favorability, at 43.8 percent, shows that opposition to the president doesn’t automatically translate into trust in the other party. With the midterms approaching, voters who decide these races appear to be asking who will deliver relief on costs and accountability on major decisions.