A Politico-PF Global poll found that 26% of people who voted for President Trump in 2024 think their Republican district candidate would have a better chance of winning the midterms by turning away from him. They cited the Iran war, the economy, and immigration and border control.
Household Costs and Political Risk
The poll found that 44% of respondents said their financial situations had gotten worse or much worse since Trump took office the previous year. Twenty-one percent said their situations had improved. Those figures reflect sharply different experiences of household finances among respondents, and the poll also found widespread dissatisfaction with affordability.
Fifty-nine percent said groceries, gas and other expenses had become somewhat or much less affordable since Trump took office. That included 40% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024. The poll measured respondents’ reports about their own finances and costs; it didn’t provide figures on wages, household income, corporate profits or how those costs were distributed.
Among Trump’s 2024 voters who said a Republican candidate would fare better by breaking with him, 57% named the Iran war as an issue for Republicans to break with Trump over. Sixty-one percent named the economy, while 67% named immigration and border control. Those percentages describe views within that subgroup, not all Trump voters.
The poll surveyed 2,001 respondents in early October and had a 2.2% margin of error. It reported larger margins of error for smaller subgroups, whose results may be less precise than the overall survey estimate.
A Contest Over Credit
Less than a month before the midterm elections, Republicans were working to defend seats in Kansas and Iowa that few had considered competitive a few months earlier. The report said Trump’s low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the economy were giving Democrats a chance to win in those places.
The survey also asked respondents who should receive credit if Republicans kept their House and Senate majorities in the November elections. Twenty-two percent said Trump’s actions as president would deserve credit. Twenty-nine percent attributed a possible Republican victory to Democrats running a weak campaign, while 23% said Republicans had run strong campaigns and that a win wouldn’t be because of Trump. Another 26% said they didn’t know.
The responses distinguish support for Republican candidates from approval of Trump. They also show that respondents offered several explanations for a possible Republican victory, rather than assigning the outcome to the president alone.
Limits of the Democratic Opening
Democrats had a 43.8% favorability rating, according to Decision Desk HQ, and hadn’t regained popularity among Americans. That figure accompanies the poll report’s account of possible Republican vulnerability: dissatisfaction with the economy and Trump’s low approval ratings were creating an opening in Kansas and Iowa, while Democrats remained unpopular overall.
The poll therefore offers no broad measure of renewed Democratic popularity. It records a possible advantage in particular Senate contests alongside the party’s 43.8% favorability rating, and shows that economic dissatisfaction reaches some voters who supported Trump in 2024. The survey doesn’t say those voters have decided to support Democrats; it reports that 26% believe a Republican candidate in their district would improve their chances by turning away from Trump.