A Politico-PF Global poll found that 67% of surveyed 2024 Trump voters who said their Republican district candidate would improve their chances by turning away from Trump wanted the party to break with him over immigration and border control. The same subgroup also favored a break over the economy and the Iran war. Border policy topped the three issues measured in that question.
The Border Question
The poll found that 26% of respondents who voted for President Trump in 2024 believed the Republican in their district would have a better chance of winning the midterms if the candidate turned away from Trump. Among them, 67% said Republicans should break with Trump over immigration and border control. Sixty-one percent said the party should break with him over the economy, while 57% named the Iran war.
Those figures cover respondents who supported a candidate distancing themselves from Trump, not all 2024 Trump voters. The poll summary doesn't provide the size of that subgroup. It reports an overall survey of 2,001 respondents, surveyed in early October, with a 2.2% margin of error; smaller subgroups have larger margins of error.
The findings place immigration and border control among the issues dividing Republican voters as candidates weigh their association with the president before November's midterm elections. The poll doesn't give a separate figure for all respondents on whether Republicans should break with Trump over border policy.
Seats and Approval
Less than a month before the midterm elections, Republicans were working to defend seats, including Senate seats in Kansas and Iowa. A few months earlier, those seats weren't considered competitive. The report said Trump's low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the economy were giving Democrats a chance to win in those places.
Decision Desk HQ put Democrats' favorability rating at 43.8%; they hadn't regained popularity among Americans. The poll also asked what should receive credit if Republicans kept their House and Senate majorities in the November elections. Twenty-nine percent said the result would come from Democrats having run a weak campaign. Another 23% said Republicans would have run strong campaigns, not because of Trump. Twenty-two percent said Trump's actions as president would deserve credit, and 26% said they didn't know.
Economic Measures
Forty-four percent of respondents said their financial situations had become worse or much worse since Trump took office the previous year. Twenty-one percent said their situations had become better or much better. The poll also found that 59% said groceries, gas and other expenses had become somewhat or much less affordable since Trump took office. That figure included 40% of Trump's 2024 voters.
The results connect the party's electoral position to voters' assessments of prices and household finances, while showing that some Trump voters see a possible electoral advantage in candidates breaking with him. The survey's issue breakdown shows the largest share of that group naming immigration and border control, followed by the economy and the Iran war. Subgroup margins of error exceed the overall poll's 2.2% margin.