Senate Polls Show Party Fight Inside Power’s Arena

New York Times/Siena polls published Nov. 1 found Democratic Senate candidates ahead in five of seven battleground states and effectively tied with Republicans in a sixth, as the midterm elections approached. The article’s title points to younger voters, but the polls reported results among likely voters and provided no findings about younger voters or Latino voters. The numbers describe a contest for seats in the U.S. Senate, not who holds power outside that electoral machinery.

The contest for Senate seats

Democrats led in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, with a narrow edge in Alaska; Iowa was effectively tied. In Michigan, the only top Senate battleground state already represented by a Democrat, the Democratic candidate led by double digits. That poll was conducted before a Democratic feud erupted in Michigan that weekend.

The October margins were D+1 in Alaska, D+1 in Iowa, D+5 in Kansas, D+6 in Maine, D+11 in Michigan, D+6 in Ohio and D+7 in Texas. September’s figures were D+7 in Alaska, R+1 in Iowa, even in Kansas, R+3 in Maine, D+5 in Michigan, D+3 in Ohio and D+6 in Texas. The comparisons come from New York Times/Siena and New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena polls of likely voters.

The polls found sizable Democratic leads in Texas and Kansas, states that hadn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988 and 1932, respectively. Democrats need to defend every seat they hold and flip at least four Republican-held seats to win a Senate majority. The article called that an uphill battle because many seats Democrats need are in Republican strongholds. The path laid out is a party contest for control of the same institution.

North Carolina wasn’t included in the surveys. Polls there had long shown the Democrat leading, while Republicans had cut campaign spending. That leaves a gap in this snapshot of the race, not a new finding about the state’s voters.

What voters say matters

Dissatisfaction with President Trump and frustration with his management of the economy were weighing on Republicans, according to the article. Thirty-eight percent of likely voters across the seven states approved of the president’s job performance. The article described that as strikingly low given that Mr. Trump had won five of the states by double digits two years earlier.

On which candidate voters trusted to do a better job, Democrats led on cost of living, what’s best for ordinary people, foreign wars and immigration in Michigan by 16, 14, 13 and 8 points, respectively. In Texas, the corresponding Democratic margins were 9 points on cost of living, 9 on what’s best for ordinary people, 8 on foreign wars and 3 on immigration. Those are judgments about candidates’ trustworthiness; the article reported no community-organized response or mutual-aid effort.

Democratic candidates’ net favorability was higher than Republicans’ in six states: Iowa, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Ohio. In Maine, Democrats registered −3 points and Republicans −1. Net favorability means the share viewing a candidate favorably minus the share viewing that candidate unfavorably.

How the numbers were made

Interviewers surveyed 610 voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan and 717 in Ohio, plus 1,215 in Texas, from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, 2026. They used live telephone interviewers, and nearly 98 percent of respondents were contacted on cellphones. Voters came from voter lists containing demographic information about registered voters, used to reach appropriate numbers by party, race and region.

Interviewers placed more than 915,000 calls to more than 400,000 voters. Pollsters gave additional weight to groups underrepresented among respondents, including people without a college degree. The margin of sampling error among likely voters ranged from plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Alaska to plus or minus 3.3 points in Texas; across the seven states together, it was plus or minus 1.5 points. The article also noted other challenges that create additional sources of error. Maine’s 2026 polls were conducted with The Portland Press Herald and sponsored in part by The Maine Trust for Local News.