Queensland Labor Scrambles as Rural Votes Shift Right

Queensland Labor wants to claw its way back to government, but One Nation is challenging its standing beyond Brisbane. The party’s route to power has narrowed: a popular LNP government stands in its way, while a rival draws support in regional communities.

A contest for party power

Pollster Kos Samaras called Labor’s position its “greatest challenge in decades.” The party is locked in a tight contest with One Nation to become Queensland’s second-most popular political party, he said. Federally, One Nation has largely taken votes from the Coalition; Queensland polling, Samaras said, suggests its support is split evenly between the LNP and Labor.

Steven Miles served as premier for ten months after succeeding Annastacia Palaszczuk. Now he wants the job back, a feat the article said no one had managed since 1911. None of Labor’s 36 MPs has served in opposition before the current term. The party must rebuild its case to voters while its factions weigh the leadership and complain about its direction.

The LNP has repeatedly highlighted division in Labor, claiming Miles’s colleagues were moving against his leadership. ABC Radio Brisbane’s Ellen Fanning asked whether Miles would face a deadline to turn things around. He denied that anyone had discussed one. “Obviously we talk about the task that’s ahead of us, and we have two more years to highlight how much worse off Queenslanders are under the Crisafulli government and to take to them a plan for the state’s future,” he said.

Some Labor sources privately backed Miles, saying opposition leader was the hardest job in politics. Others voiced frustration over a lack of direction and a haphazard approach. Voters may struggle to see a clean slate: Labor’s shadow cabinet is largely unchanged from its time in government.

Forums, factions and the electoral calendar

Labor has started local forums to hear concerns about the housing crisis, recalling the LNP’s opposition-era Health Crisis Town Halls. The source reports the forums, but offers no direct community response or mutual-aid effort. Sarah Mawhinney, executive director of the McKell Institute and a former Labor policy advisor, said Labor “needed to start taking bark off the government” while building toward 2028.

“You’re not going to win an election in the first year of opposition; you’re not going to win it in 2027,” Mawhinney said. “It will take a lot of work to reconnect with the electorate and make the case as to why voters should trust Labor again.” Queensland voters will judge Labor’s performance when polls open in October 2028. The party’s path back runs through that contest, even as factional disputes remain unresolved and its shadow cabinet largely carries over from government.

Potential leadership contenders include frontbenchers Cameron Dick, Shannon Fentiman and Meaghan Scanlon, each of whom has publicly backed Miles. The article said Dick lacked the numbers in the minority right faction, while Fentiman lacked the numbers in the left. Scanlon, in Miles’s left faction camp, faces a challenge to keep her Gold Coast seat. Gaven appears more favourable to the LNP as boundaries are due to be redrawn, and Scanlon holds it by a margin of less than 1 per cent.

Regional ground slips away

Outside south-east Queensland, Labor holds just three seats: Cairns, Bundaberg and Gladstone. The LNP has signalled a focus on regional Queensland, pledging to spread events for the 2032 Olympics and Paralympics across the state. One Nation has a strong presence in regional Queensland.

“A combination of the One Nation vote and the LNP vote makes it very hard to see a world where Labor has any traction outside of Brisbane,” Samaras said. “And I wouldn’t rule out them losing further seats in Brisbane.” He said Rockhampton, a former Labor stronghold conceded for the first time since 1932, was unlikely to return to Labor. “What is happening in Rockhampton is a process that we’re seeing evolve across the country, where regional communities are moving more to parties of the right and centre right.” Miles says his task is to persuade voters that Queenslanders are worse off under the Crisafulli government and offer a plan for the state’s future.