Who Gets Drawn Out of Power
Redistricting has become a fierce national political fight ahead of the November midterm elections, with states moving to redraw U.S. House maps after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling weakened the federal Voting Rights Act and opened the way for states to try to eliminate districts drawn for racial minorities. The battle intensified after President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans last year to reshape U.S. House districts to give the party an edge in the midterm elections, prompting Democrats in California to counter with their own political gerrymandering and drawing more states into the fight.
The Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais weakened the last remaining national impediment to gerrymandering by undercutting the Voting Rights Act requirement that, in places where white people and outnumbered racial minorities vote differently, districts be drawn to give those minorities a chance to elect representatives they prefer. The ruling came after the court had earlier knocked out a major pillar of the law that had protected against racial discrimination in voting and representation. The decision has already affected states including Louisiana and Alabama and is expected to shape redistricting efforts in several others.
Eight states have already adopted new House maps, and several more are considering it. Republicans believe they could win up to 13 additional seats from new districts in Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Democrats think they could gain up to 10 seats from new districts in California, Utah and Virginia. Those tallies assume past voting patterns hold in November. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in the midterms, and Democrats need to gain just a few seats in November to wrest control of the House from Republicans.
What the State Apparatus Is Doing
In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry postponed the May 16 congressional primary to allow lawmakers to revise U.S. House districts in response to the April 29 Supreme Court ruling striking down a majority Black congressional district. Several lawsuits have been filed in federal and state court asserting that Landry lacked authority to suspend the primary elections. In Alabama, Republican state officials hope to revert to a U.S. House map passed in 2023 but not previously used, and state officials have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to set aside a court order requiring the current map to be used until after the 2030 census. In Tennessee, Republican Gov. Bill Lee has called lawmakers into special session to consider a new U.S. House map that could carve up a Black-majority district in Memphis and improve Republican chances of winning an additional seat, though the candidate qualifying period already has ended for the primaries scheduled for Aug. 6.
Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Virginia and Florida have all taken action on new House districts. In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed a revised House map into law last August that could help Republicans win five additional seats, and the U.S. Supreme Court in December cleared the way for the new districts to be used in this year’s elections before later overturning a lower-court ruling that had blocked the map because it was racially gerrymandered. In California, voters in November approved revised House districts drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature that could help Democrats win five additional seats, and the Supreme Court in February allowed the new districts to be used in this year’s elections after denying an appeal from Republicans and the Department of Justice, which claimed the districts impermissibly favor Hispanic voters.
Who Pays for the Map-Making Game
In Missouri, Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a revised House map into law last September that could help Republicans win an additional seat, and a Cole County judge ruled the new map is in effect while election officials determine whether a referendum petition meets constitutional criteria and contains enough valid signatures. The Missouri Supreme Court rejected a lawsuit claiming mid-decade redistricting is illegal and is scheduled to hear arguments in May on claims the new districts violate compactness requirements and should be placed on hold pending a possible referendum.
In North Carolina, the Republican-led General Assembly gave final approval in October to revised districts that could help Republicans win an additional seat, and a federal court panel in November denied a request to block the revised districts from being used in the midterm elections. In Ohio, a bipartisan panel composed primarily of Republicans voted in October to approve revised House districts that improve Republicans’ chances of winning two additional seats, and the state constitution required new districts before the 2026 election because Republicans had approved the prior map without sufficient Democratic support after the last census. In Utah, a judge in November imposed revised House districts that could help Democrats win a seat after ruling lawmakers had circumvented anti-gerrymandering standards passed by voters when adopting the prior map, and a federal court panel and the state Supreme Court each rejected Republican challenges in February.
In Virginia, voters approved a constitutional amendment on April 21 authorizing new U.S. House districts backed by Democrats that could help the party win up to four additional seats, and the state Supreme Court allowed the referendum to proceed while considering an appeal of a Tazewell County judge’s ruling that the amendment is invalid because lawmakers violated procedural requirements. In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on May 4 that he had signed revised U.S. House districts that improve the GOP’s chances of winning four additional seats, and a court challenge contends the new map violates a state constitution provision prohibiting districts from being drawn with intent to favor or disfavor a political party.
What They Call Order
The redistricting fight is unfolding in a broader political climate marked by extreme rhetoric, a spike in political violence and a rash of assassinations since Donald Trump rose to power. Five years after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump’s allies are trying to harness the same falsehoods about voter fraud to reshape elections. Willie Simon, who leads the Shelby County Democratic Party in Tennessee, said the court’s conservative majority set a precedent that if you’re “not in the in-crowd group, they can just erase us.”
Matt Dallek, a political scientist at George Washington University, said, “I’ve never subscribed to the idea we’re in a civil war, but the gerrymandering wars and the recent decision from the Supreme Court do not make the United States more united,” adding, “It speeds up the hyperpartisan force and atmosphere that people feel on both sides.” Rick Hasen, a law professor at UCLA, said, “It’s hard to know where it ends.” Jonathan Cervas, a political scientist at Carnegie Mellon who’s redrawn maps on behalf of judges reviewing redistricting litigation, said the country’s system “was founded on this idea that it’s majority rule with minority rights,” and added, “There is no more rule of law in redistricting. There have to be some constraints, somewhere. Otherwise we don’t really have elections.” Michael Li of the liberal Brennan Center for Justice in New York said, “When you try to get every last ounce of blood from the stone you can end up shooting yourself in the foot.” Sean Trende, a political analyst who has drawn maps for Republicans, said the court decision is likely to lead to partisan gerrymandering run amok and added, “All our institutions are broken. We don’t speak a common political language. This is what you get.”
Trump wrote on social media on Sunday, “We should demand that State Legislatures do what the Supreme Court says must be done,” and added, “That is more important than administrative convenience.” He also said Republicans could gain 20 seats through redistricting.