Iran War Sinks Republicans; Now They Want a Scapegoat

Within a day of Tuesday's vote, a veteran New York fundraiser began hearing from major donors who said they couldn't back Vice President JD Vance in 2028 and floated Florida Governor Ron DeSantis instead. That's how the machine works. A war goes badly, seats flip, and the people who financed the whole enterprise start shopping for a fresh face.

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing people close to Vance, that he and his allies are privately debating whether he should run at all after Republicans suffered sweeping losses in Tuesday's midterm elections, held less than one week ago. Democrats flipped seven Republican Senate seats, including Vance's former seat in Ohio, and won governorships in Georgia and Texas. Some allies have told Vance they no longer believe any Republican can win the presidency in two years. On Election Day, a longtime confidant texted him to consider sitting out. Six people close to him told the Journal he hasn't made up his mind.

The Pre-War Polling Memo

Here's the detail worth sitting with. In January, as Donald Trump weighed a major military operation, Vance privately urged him not to give up on diplomacy and gathered polling. The public was split 44% to 43% on going to war. Sixty-two percent said fewer than 100 US combat deaths would be acceptable. Sixty-five percent said Trump should seek congressional approval first. The numbers existed, the vice president read them, and the war happened anyway. Trump's own verdict, given to the Journal: "I did the right thing... I would have done it again."

Now Vance has posted a lengthy essay on social media blaming the Iran war for the losses and arguing the party needs to change its relationship with Israel. Republicans in Washington widely read it as a first step toward distancing himself from some of Trump's unpopular policies, the Journal reported. Donald Trump Jr. publicly endorsed it. People close to Vance say the results were a rejection of the war, not of Trump. Convenient, that. Trump, asked about a successor, declined to endorse anyone: "Maybe he won't run... I don't know who's going to run."

Who Gets Crushed, Who Gets Impeached

The people who actually fight and die in wars don't show up in this story except as an acceptable-casualty threshold in a poll. What does show up is the hunt for a fall guy. The House is expected to bring impeachment measures against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky) set to introduce the bipartisan effort within days. House Republican sources told Axios their reasoning relates to how Hegseth handled the Iran war. "Iran, Iran, Iran ... We should have never done the war before the midterms," one GOP lawmaker said. Read that again. The objection is to the timing, not the war.

Another lawmaker said Hegseth has been "very damaging to our ability to get the facts out to the American people." Several US reports indicate defeated Republicans feel they have nothing to lose and are looking to blame him. CNN reported that many Republicans don't appear to blame the war on Trump and remain unwilling to break from the administration, but may not have the same fealty toward Hegseth. A Trump adviser told Reuters he "could be on the chopping block." Senator Thom Tillis (Republican-North Carolina) told CBS News Hegseth has "a reckoning" coming, and that his strained relationship with lawmakers was undermining the push for a $1.5 trillion defense spending package. The grievance, in the end, is that the war's paymaster is being obstructed.

Loyalty Oaths and Partisan Theater

Trump keeps backing his man: "No, I think he's doing a very good job." Hegseth, in a five-minute video on X, called the articles "sham" and said, "Just like the president, we don't back down." Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell added that Hegseth "will not back down or be deterred by politicians seeking to score partisan points." Massie says he'll hold off only if Hegseth resigns. He tried this in September, about two months ago, and House Republican leadership delayed the vote; Speaker Mike Johnson denied sending members home early to avoid it. Massie, who lost his seat to Ed Gallrein, wrote that Democrats will bring "hearings & trials." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries promised at an October rally in Pennsylvania, "we're going to run Pete Hegseth out of town."

Notice the pattern. Vance wants distance from the war's electoral cost. Republicans want a defense secretary to carry the blame while the commander in chief stays untouched. Democrats want a trophy. Nobody in this account proposes ending the war's machinery, only reassigning its liability. Vance's gesture on Israel is framed as a repositioning for 2028, and the $1.5 trillion defense package is treated as the thing that must survive.

The ballot box delivered a verdict, and the apparatus answered by shuffling personnel. A new face, a new fall guy, the same appropriations.