Iran Rearms and Threatens Hormuz as US Carrier Heads East

Iran’s top security official told a visiting Pakistani army chief on Tuesday that “not even a tiny bit of enriched nuclear material will leave Iran.” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, made the vow to Field Marshal Asim Munir as the United States sent the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group, carrying roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines, toward the Middle East. Diplomacy over Tehran’s nuclear program has hit a wall.

The Security Picture

The Roosevelt left San Diego on September 27 and should relieve the Japan-based USS George Washington, already operating in the region. These deployments give Washington more flexibility for air operations, shipping protection and responses to regional threats. They don’t, by themselves, mean an attack has been ordered. President Donald Trump is weighing whether to resume strikes on Iran, but he has said he won’t launch any before the November 3 US midterm elections.

Tehran is preparing, too. Iranian military expert Mohammad Sadegh Alizadeh said lessons from the 12-day war in June 2025 and the 40-day war that began on February 28 prompted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the army’s air defences to change tactics. Iran has converted some missiles capable of reaching Israel into modular systems that can be activated faster and with fewer logistical requirements. It has also improved coastal anti-ship missiles and tested them in recent exercises. Alizadeh cited reports of possible purchases of hypersonic anti-ship missiles from allied countries, which, he said, would be harder to intercept.

The threats are explicit. Former IRGC commander Hossein Kanani Moghaddam said a new attack would draw a response beyond reciprocal strikes, naming Haifa, Tel Aviv and the Dimona nuclear facility as possible targets. He also referred to what he called powerful electromagnetic bombs and a missile named Rastakhiz, or Resurrection. No one has independently verified those claims. Military chief Ali Abdollahi said Iran had developed missiles that can’t be detected or intercepted. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi suggested Iran could target seven major undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that even a limited US operation could trigger a serious global energy crisis.

Diplomatic Dead End

Iran’s negotiating position leaves little room. President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected talks under military threat and demanded sanctions relief. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Washington must meet seven Iranian conditions, including ending the US blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and halting regional hostilities. Iran has signaled it might dilute uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity inside the country, but it refuses to ship the material abroad. Washington says any deal must prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons. Iran denies seeking a bomb.

Pakistan has played a central role in mediation since US and Israeli strikes began on February 28. Islamabad helped broker an April ceasefire and a June memorandum of understanding intended to frame a permanent settlement. That process broke down. Qatar and Oman still keep their own channels open. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington welcomes mediation, but Trump will decide which terms are acceptable.

Inside Iran, hardliners doubt mediators can deliver. Commentator Ali Gholhaki said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Munir returned empty-handed after Tehran rejected proposals to transfer enriched uranium. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei defended keeping diplomatic channels open.

The Regional Threat

Israel hasn’t stood idle. The Financial Times reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought a new bombing campaign against Iran, prepared for the weekend of 10 October, targeting power plants, nuclear facilities and sites tied to the government. Trump opposed reigniting the conflict before the midterms, and officials shelved the plan. One person familiar with Netanyahu’s thinking called renewed strikes in coming weeks “not an unreasonable scenario,” adding: “There will either be a deal or an attack.” During a Monday visit to Israel, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth saw an updated target list based on new intelligence, according to a source cited by the paper. White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms.

Any new round could open several fronts. Hezbollah, which had refrained from striking Israel for months, was preparing for escalation. Netanyahu and Israeli ministers warned Lebanon it would face an expanded occupation of southern territories and renewed bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs if Hezbollah joined a war alongside Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis are fighting Saudi Arabia and Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Iraqi militias, whose bases US-Israeli strikes have hit, have targeted US interests in Iraq and the Gulf.

Israel votes next week, and analysts say the Iran-focused doctrine will endure whoever wins. Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks hardened it; those attacks now approach their third anniversary, alongside the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel’s security establishment and much of its political class share a focus on confronting Iran, “forward defense” and military deterrence. Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, said: “As long as Iran is in such a situation, it’s a waste of time talking about Palestine.” Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib said parties compete to look tougher as public opinion moves right. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group warned that settler violence, Palestinian frustration and the lack of a political horizon have made the West Bank combustible.

Gulf voices remain divided. Abdulaziz Sager of the Gulf Research Center called Netanyahu’s policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon damaging, yet warned: “If Iran’s role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony.” Young put the strategic problem bluntly: “This is a quagmire. The Iranians can outlast Trump.”

Why This Matters: Iran is publicly refusing to part with its enriched uranium as it rebuilds missile forces and threatens Israeli cities, a nuclear site and global energy and communications infrastructure. Gulf markets slid as hopes for a deal faded, while oil remains sensitive to any threat to Hormuz shipping. Mediators produced a ceasefire and a framework; both collapsed. The security danger is a regime that believes it can outlast its adversaries while its allied militias in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq remain armed and positioned. Even critics of Israeli policy, like Sager, concede that curbing Tehran’s reach is the region’s organizing question.