Israel's Settlement Drive Continues as US Deploys Warships

Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu, said settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank would continue regardless of the Israeli election, as the United States deploys warships and roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines to the Middle East amid its standoff with Iran.

Bushinsky said: “If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do. Expansion of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue.” He added: “As long as Iran is in such a situation, it's a waste of time talking about Palestine.”

Palestine and the Israeli election

Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies face an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib said a fundamental shift in policy toward Palestinians was out of reach, with parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further right.

“The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,” Al-Khatib said. A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might curb some settler violence or pursue settlement expansion less publicly, he said, but that would change style, not substance.

Netanyahu said Israel must put “prevention and offense over containment and defense” first, including pre-emptive strikes, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximizing its independence in armaments. Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel's security establishment and much of its political class share an outlook focused on confronting Iran, maintaining “forward defense” and preserving military deterrence.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has researched the West Bank, said settler violence, Palestinian frustration and the lack of a “political horizon” had created combustible conditions. A minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.

US military deployment and Iran

The United States is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group to the region. The Roosevelt left San Diego on September 27 and is expected to relieve the Japan-based USS George Washington, which has been operating there. These deployments give Washington more operational flexibility for air operations, protecting shipping and responding to regional threats; they don't, on their own, show that an attack has been ordered or is imminent.

President Donald Trump is weighing whether to resume strikes against Iran. He has said he won't launch strikes before the November 3 US midterm elections. The United States and Iran remain divided over uranium enrichment, sanctions, military threats and regional security.

Iran has refused to transfer enriched uranium abroad and says negotiations can't resume without US concessions. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei told visiting Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir on Tuesday: “Not even a tiny bit of enriched nuclear material will leave Iran.” President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected talks under military threats and demanded sanctions relief. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Washington must meet Iran's seven conditions, including ending the US blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and halting regional hostilities.

Threats of renewed strikes

Israel had prepared a multi-day campaign for the weekend of 10 October, targeting Iranian power plants, nuclear facilities and sites associated with the government, according to a Financial Times report. Trump opposed reigniting the conflict before the midterm elections, and the proposed operation was shelved. During a visit to Israel on Monday, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was shown an updated list of Iranian targets based on new intelligence, including civilian infrastructure not struck earlier in the year, a source told the Financial Times.

Netanyahu's former adviser said the wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah would continue under a Netanyahu government. In a speech this week, Netanyahu said: “Completing the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus.” The election may change Israel's leader, but analysts and regional policymakers said the country's Iran-focused security doctrine was unlikely to change.

A wider conflict could open on multiple fronts, including Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu and Israeli government ministers warned Lebanon it would face serious consequences if Hezbollah joined the war alongside Iran, including an expanded occupation of southern territories and renewed bombardment of Beirut's southern suburbs.

According to Al-Khatib, the naval deployment and Israeli strike planning come as settlement expansion remains an agreed policy position across the leading Israeli political camps. The stated dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is unfolding alongside that policy toward Palestinians.