Lithuania's defence minister has warned that Russia is actively planning to stage false-flag attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region using Ukrainian drones — a calculated attempt to discredit Kyiv and fracture NATO's military support for Ukraine.
Robertas Kaunas said the most realistic current scenario involves Russia assembling a functional drone from parts of Ukrainian aircraft that have crashed on Russian territory during long-range strikes. "We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used," Kaunas said during a press briefing. "That's the most realistic current scenario."
The warning follows reports this year in Lithuanian media that the country's military intelligence believes Russia is weighing attacks on critical infrastructure across the Baltic region using Ukrainian-made drones. While Kaunas said there's no indication such an operation is imminent, he confirmed Russia is actively planning scenarios.
Security Stepped Up Across Baltic Infrastructure
Lithuania, a country of less than 3 million people, has stepped up security around key energy infrastructure. Protected sites now include the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland near Alytus, a major transformer substation in Alytus district, and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.
The concern isn't theoretical. Ukraine has repeatedly launched long-range drone attacks against targets inside Russia. While many reach their intended targets, others are intercepted or crash — leaving wreckage in Russian hands that could be repurposed.
Lithuania has experienced several drone incursions in recent years. This year, Lithuanian authorities concluded that drones which crashed on its territory were Ukrainian aircraft that had been diverted from their intended routes by Russian electronic systems while carrying out strikes inside Russia. A year ago, two Russian drones also crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before crashing.
Moscow's Domestic Pressures
Kaunas said an intentional strike against critical infrastructure would represent a significant escalation. He said the Kremlin needs it because Russian society is beginning to question why there are fuel shortages, why warehouses are burning, and why Ukrainian drones are flying over Russia.
"In order to preserve its grip on power and maintain the image of victory, the Russian regime is looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation," Kaunas said.
He said one of Moscow's objectives would be to sow divisions within the alliance and reduce Western military support for Kyiv. "But I can assure you that will not happen," Kaunas said.
Kaunas's assessment points to a Kremlin under pressure domestically — facing questions about the war's conduct and economic disruption — and seeking external provocations to deflect blame and justify further mobilization.
Why This Matters:
This warning reveals the lengths to which Russia may go to undermine European solidarity with Ukraine. A false-flag attack on Baltic infrastructure wouldn't just threaten energy security in a region already vulnerable after cutting ties with Russian gas — it would test NATO's cohesion and the credibility of Article 5 collective defence commitments. Lithuania's decision to publicly expose the intelligence reflects a strategic choice: transparency as deterrence. By naming the threat before it materializes, Baltic states hope to inoculate public opinion against disinformation and ensure any attack is immediately recognized for what it is. The risk is real. The response must be unified.