Lithuania's defence minister has warned that Russia is actively planning to stage a false-flag attack against critical infrastructure in the Baltics using Ukrainian drones, aiming to discredit Kyiv and fracture NATO's support for Ukraine's war effort.
Robertas Kaunas said the most realistic current scenario involves Russia assembling a functional drone from parts of Ukrainian aircraft that have crashed inside Russian territory after strikes on military and energy targets. "We are talking about a potential false-flag operation where a fake Ukrainian drone could be used," Kaunas said during a press briefing. "That's the most realistic current scenario."
Security Measures Intensified
Lithuania, a country of less than 3 million people, has stepped up security around key energy infrastructure. Protected sites now include the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland near Alytus, a major transformer substation in Alytus district and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.
Kaunas said there's no indication such an operation is imminent, but that Russia is actively planning scenarios. His warning follows recent reports in Lithuanian media this year that the country's military intelligence believes Russia is weighing attacks on critical infrastructure across the Baltic region using Ukrainian-made drones.
Ukraine has repeatedly launched long-range drone attacks against targets inside Russia. While many reach their intended targets, others are intercepted or crash, leaving wreckage in Russian hands that could be repurposed.
Pattern of Incursions
Lithuania has experienced several drone incursions in recent years. Earlier this year, Lithuanian authorities concluded that drones which crashed on its territory were Ukrainian aircraft that had been diverted from their intended routes by Russian electronic systems while carrying out strikes inside Russia. A year ago, two Russian drones also crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before crashing.
Kaunas said an intentional strike against critical infrastructure would represent a significant escalation. He said the Kremlin needs it because Russian society is beginning to question why there are fuel shortages, why warehouses are burning and why Ukrainian drones are flying over Russia.
"In order to preserve its grip on power and maintain the image of victory, the Russian regime is looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation," Kaunas said. He said one of Moscow's objectives would be to sow divisions within the alliance and reduce Western military support for Kyiv. "But I can assure you that will not happen," Kaunas said.
Why This Matters:
The warning underscores the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in NATO's eastern flank and the lengths to which Moscow may go to undermine Western unity on Ukraine. Lithuania's energy infrastructure isn't just national — the Klaipėda LNG terminal and Polish interconnector are part of the EU's effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy. A successful false-flag operation could test Article 5 commitments and force difficult conversations about proportionate response. It would also exploit the one weakness in NATO's support for Ukraine: public opinion in member states that's increasingly sensitive to the costs and risks of prolonged conflict. Lithuania's response — heightened security and public disclosure of intelligence — reflects the reality that deterrence now requires transparency about Russian hybrid operations before they happen.