Lithuania's defence minister, Robertas Kaunas, warned this week that Russia is considering staging a false-flag attack against critical infrastructure in the Baltics. This declaration immediately translates into heightened security measures across the region, further entrenching the militarized logic of Fortress Europe.
Kaunas stated that the most realistic current scenario involves a potential false-flag operation using a fake Ukrainian drone. He elaborated that parts of Ukrainian drones, previously launched against military and energy targets inside Russia, could be assembled into a functional device for such an operation.
While there is no indication of an imminent operation, Kaunas confirmed that Russia is actively planning these scenarios. This warning follows recent reports in Lithuanian media, indicating that the country's military intelligence believes Russia is weighing attacks on critical infrastructure across the Baltic region using Ukrainian-made drones.
Militarization and Diversion
Kaunas suggested that the Kremlin needs this escalation because Russian society is beginning to question internal issues. He cited fuel shortages, burning warehouses, and Ukrainian drones flying over Russia as reasons for public discontent. “In order to preserve its grip on power and maintain the image of victory, the Russian regime is looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation,” Kaunas said.
This mirrors how European governments often leverage external threats, including manufactured “migration crises,” to divert public attention from the failures of austerity and to justify increased state control. The minister also stated that one of Moscow's objectives would be to sow divisions within the NATO alliance and reduce Western military support for Kyiv.
Lithuania, a nation of fewer than 3 million people, has already stepped up security around key energy infrastructure. This includes the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland near Alytus, a major transformer substation in Alytus district, and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant. Such measures, while presented as national defense, contribute to the ever-expanding security apparatus that criminalises movement and hardens the continent's borders.
The Expanding Security State
Ukraine has repeatedly launched long-range drone attacks against targets inside Russia. Many of these reach their intended targets, but others are intercepted or crash, leaving wreckage in Russian hands, which could be exploited for false-flag operations.
Lithuania has experienced several drone incursions in recent years. Earlier this year, Lithuanian authorities concluded that drones which crashed on its territory were Ukrainian aircraft, diverted from their intended routes by Russian electronic systems while carrying out strikes inside Russia. Last year, two Russian drones also crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before crashing.
Kaunas warned that an intentional strike against critical infrastructure would represent a significant escalation. He assured that such attempts to divide the alliance would not succeed, yet the constant drumbeat of security threats only serves to justify further militarization, diverting resources from social welfare and entrenching the border regime that defines Fortress Europe.