A new report from BloombergNEF indicates that tech companies and data center developers are poised to exert an “outsized influence” over the viability of national energy sources by mid-century, even as solar power is projected to become the dominant global energy source by 2035. This forecast signals a significant transfer of control over critical infrastructure from national decision-makers to transnational corporate interests, fundamentally reshaping the energy landscape.
The BloombergNEF report projects solar will surpass coal, oil, and natural gas as the largest power source within the next decade, driven by economic factors that deem solar “too cheap to ignore.” However, this shift occurs concurrently with a surge in energy demand fueled by artificial intelligence (AI) and the electrification of industries, creating new dependencies.
Elite Interests Consolidate Control
Data centers alone are expected to drive an additional 1 terawatt of utility-scale solar, 400 gigawatts of solar, 370 gigawatts of natural gas, and 110 gigawatts of coal. Despite the solar expansion, fossil fuels like natural gas and coal are anticipated to provide 51% of incremental generation for data centers by 2050 due to their 24/7 operational capacity. This reliance on traditional sources, managed by new corporate giants, underscores the complex and potentially vulnerable future of national energy grids.
The report highlights that the dramatic spread of solar panels and their declining costs, expected to drop another 30% by 2035, are largely driven by China’s industrial policy. Beijing’s strategy of subsidizing manufacturers and flooding the global market has reduced costs at a “remarkable pace,” according to Matthias Kimmel, head of energy economics at BloombergNEF. This foreign industrial policy directly impacts the energy independence of Western nations, creating a reliance on external supply chains for foundational infrastructure.
The Cost to National Autonomy
BloombergNEF’s analysis also reveals that the abundance of solar power is pushing grid-scale battery costs down. In Spain and Italy, standalone solar farms are reportedly no longer profitable due to a surplus of solar power driving down daytime electricity prices. Developers in these nations have responded by constructing hybrid renewable power plants that pair solar panels with batteries, illustrating market instability and the need for complex, costly solutions.
The report acknowledges that its forecasts are not “ironclad,” noting competition from long-duration energy storage, geothermal, and nuclear power. Corporate giants are already making moves, with Google investing $1 billion in 100-hour batteries from Form Energy for a data center project. Furthermore, companies like Redwood Materials and Ford have launched energy storage businesses, consolidating control over the emerging battery market, which saw 112 gigawatts of grid-scale batteries installed worldwide last year and is expected to nearly triple by 2035.
BloombergNEF also presented two scenarios for countries’ dependence on energy imports. While an “economic transition scenario” suggests reduced reliance on foreign energy, a “net-zero scenario,” driven by “regulations,” projects that every country could “virtually eliminate its reliance on energy imports.” Kimmel stated that this transition, being “cost efficient,” is “good for energy independence.” However, the emphasis on “regulations” in the net-zero scenario points to a framework potentially dictated by supranational bodies, further eroding national self-determination in energy policy. The report notably missed the “Iran War,” which began during its production, a significant geopolitical event with profound implications for global energy security, suggesting a blind spot in globalist forecasting models.