ANC Sinks, Voters Stay Home, Coalition Haggling Starts

Fikile Mbalula, secretary-general of the African National Congress, stood up on Saturday and called his party's result "catastrophic." With 99 percent of votes counted, the ANC sat at about 31 percent nationally against 25 percent for the Democratic Alliance, a drop of roughly 14 percentage points from 2021, five years ago. The IEC dashboard put it at 30.91 percent, down from 45.59, and the party had already lost 303 wards. That's the worst showing since 1994.

Yet the people who actually voted are only part of the story.

Who Stayed Home

According to the IEC, about 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters cast a ballot. Ipsos estimates 44.9 million South Africans are eligible to vote, which means millions never even made it onto the rolls. In the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and North West, more registered voters stayed home than voted. Analyst Delta Milayo Ndou of the Political Campaigns Resource Hub found that about a fifth of the vote shifted between parties this year, and wrote that "no party inherits loyalty anymore."

The grievances aren't mysterious. Unemployment tops 34 percent, more than three decades after the end of apartheid. Water and electricity fail. Corruption festers. Mbalula himself conceded the problems: poor service delivery, internal divisions and "distant representatives." He described ANC volunteers jumping over sewerage to knock on doors in Johannesburg. That's the party that's run the city.

Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma, who leads the March and March movement, said it plainly: "By 2029 the losses will be worse, we can't have a President that doesn't listen to people." Spokesperson Sandile Dube said the government turned to the courts to silence the movement. The National Prosecuting Authority and SAPS rejected claims that charges against Ngobese-Zuma were politically motivated. Ramaphosa's spokesperson didn't respond.

What They're Calling "Order"

Now the haggling begins. No party won more than 50 percent in many cities, including Johannesburg, so the ANC and DA must team up or bargain with smaller parties. By Sunday midday, at least 134 of 190 councils were hung. Only Cape Town gave one party an outright majority. Parties have 14 days before councils are formed. There's no prescribed formula for coalitions and no legal deadline for concluding agreements.

In Johannesburg the DA led with about 35 percent to the ANC's 20. Helen Zille, who campaigned on fixing potholes and leaking water pipes, has a shot at mayor. Julius Malema of the EFF wants a seat at the table, but on the EFF's own terms, and urged the ANC to reconcile with its "lost kids" rather than go in with the DA. Mbalula said the party has no formal view yet. He also said the ANC wouldn't go "begging for positions."

The mayor's chair will be decided in rooms most voters will never enter. A party doesn't need to be the largest to govern if others combine votes. In a 100-seat council, someone needs 51 councillors, and 40 seats means finding 11 more. Coalitions can collapse if a party withdraws support, leaving the mayor open to a no-confidence motion, a recurring feature in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay. Voters mark a ballot; the deal-making happens after, without them.

The Reform Trap

The commentary class is already offering the usual balm. Dr Xolisile Ngumbela urged parties to move "from coalitions of convenience to coalitions of purpose," and wrote that "The election season is over, and the season of governance has begun." Mantashe, per EWN headlines, called the ANC's decline a sign of a maturing democracy. The DA promised talks with parties committed to "clean and accountable government."

For residents wading through broken infrastructure, a new coalition of the same professional politicians is a change of letterhead. Turnout rose to 52.3 percent at comparable stations, yet the water and power problems that drove people out didn't vote. Whoever gets the mayor's chair inherits the same leaking pipes and the same 34 percent unemployment. The Gauteng ANC, meanwhile, is lodging formal objections with the IEC over alleged discrepancies. The machinery argues over seats while the potholes wait.