Spanish intelligence services warned the government for days before tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta this week, yet Madrid deployed reinforcements only after the crisis had begun. Between 60,000 and 75,000 people entered the North African exclave in what marks the largest migration crisis in Ceuta's history, according to multiple military and civilian intelligence sources consulted by The Objective media.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez described the mass crossing as a "violation of Spain's territorial integrity." His government denied having advance warning. That denial doesn't hold. Intelligence alerts were issued over several days, including in the hours immediately before the surge began.
The Warnings Madrid Received
Alberto Núñez Feijoo, leader of the Popular Party, said during his appearance in Ceuta that the Spanish government had been aware of the situation since last Monday. Intelligence services had warned that King Mohammed VI was likely to make a "gesture of magnanimity" at the border to coincide with Morocco's Throne Day celebrations. Those warnings were followed by reports of migrants swimming across from Fnideq, known as Castillejos in Spanish, and buses carrying people from different parts of Morocco towards the border.
Over the course of around ten days, nearly 1,000 people swam into Ceuta. Intelligence officials reportedly viewed this as a test by Moroccan authorities and passed that assessment on to the government. The government did nothing.
Border Forces Overwhelmed
The Civil Guard and National Police stationed at the Tarajal border crossing were unable to stop the influx of migrants and instead focused on assisting the injured, several sources said. The same sources criticized Madrid for not deploying the army immediately, despite military units in both Ceuta and Melilla being on standby.
Officers deployed in the area also reported that the Moroccan gendarmerie stood "with their arms folded" while migrants attempted the crossing, both along the breakwater and on the access road to the border crossing, where other people climbed over fences and roofs. According to Spain's Interior Ministry, about 53,000 people had returned to Morocco in the days that followed.
A Supreme Court Ruling Changed Everything
Civil Guard sources added that the current situation differs from that seen in May 2021, when Morocco relaxed its border controls in a diplomatic response to Spain's decision to admit the Polisario Front leader, Brahim Ghali. This time, they said, the number of people swimming into Ceuta had already been rising for weeks, partly because of a Spanish Supreme Court ruling prohibiting the immediate return of migrants who reach Spanish territory by swimming.
That ruling has practical consequences. It removed the one deterrent that made swimming across less attractive. Morocco knows this. Spain's government knew it too.
Madrid's Response
The Interior Ministry insisted hours later that cooperation with Morocco was "exemplary, loyal and permanent." Sánchez said Moroccan authorities had cooperated "swiftly and consistently" from the outset, and added that Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska had reinforced border security as arrivals by sea increased. That reinforcement ultimately resulted in about thirty additional officers and a boat that, a few days later, broke down.
Despite repeated warnings from intelligence agencies, the Ministry of the Interior did not order the deployment of reinforcements until late Thursday, 3 days ago, when the army was called in along with additional personnel from the Civil Guard and the National Police.
Why This Matters:
This wasn't a surprise. Spain's intelligence services did their job. They warned the government repeatedly that Morocco was preparing to relax border enforcement and that migrants were massing near Ceuta. The government chose not to act until the crisis was already unfolding. That's a failure of political will, not intelligence. Border control is a core function of the state. When governments ignore warnings and deploy thirty officers to manage a potential surge of tens of thousands, they're signaling that border security isn't a priority. The Supreme Court ruling that prevents immediate returns made the situation worse by removing any deterrent to swimming across. Spain now faces the consequences: a city overwhelmed, public services strained, and 53,000 people sent back after they'd already crossed. Effective border policy requires enforcement before the crisis, not damage control after. The Spanish government had the information. It didn't use it.