Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to arrive at the European Council ready for a fight over migration, five diplomats and one official told POLITICO's Brussels Playbook. “Of course” there will be a fight, said one senior EU diplomat, who added that it will likely get “quite bloody.” Another said they wouldn’t be surprised by an “intense” debate. All demanded anonymity, which says plenty about how freely the summit’s insiders discuss the performance they’re about to stage.
The bloodletting is scheduled. It has an audience, too. Two diplomats said Sánchez squaring off against Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will play well with their domestic voter bases. Sánchez is trailing in the polls before a snap election on Nov. 29, about six weeks away. Meloni faces a tough election next year as far-right challenger Roberto Vannacci gains momentum, one diplomat said. “It will be helpful for Sánchez to pick a fight,” said another EU diplomat. “And it might be helpful for Meloni too.”
The Electoral Circus
The quarrel, then, suits both sides. Human movement becomes campaign material, as leaders who disagree on tone trade blows in Brussels while the machinery keeps running. The European Commission and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, are pressing for faster returns and tighter border controls. Sánchez’s government has pushed more liberal migration policies, putting him at odds with that harder line, the diplomats said.
We’ve seen this script before. At the June European Council, about four months ago, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen steered discussion toward the EU’s new returns rules. Sánchez criticized the bloc’s hard-line approach. Meloni backed Frederiksen and attacked Spain’s decision to regularize undocumented migrants. The likely outcome? Diplomats expect little tangible change this time, too. “They’ll say lots of things to each other, and then probably go for a drink after,” one said.
Ceuta, Where the Fence Meets the Flesh
Behind the diplomatic banter is a concrete place. Ceuta, Spain’s exclave in North Africa, is still dealing with the aftermath of an influx of 70,000 people from Morocco in July, about three months ago, according to BBC reporting. Meloni and other EU leaders criticized Sánchez after those mass arrivals. King Felipe VI visited Ceuta yesterday and is due in Melilla today, touring Europe’s fortified edges.
Notice who isn’t in the briefing. The 70,000 people are the subject, but no one among them was asked what they want. Five diplomats and one official supplied the quotes; none will attach a name to a word.
Outsourcing the Fence
Madrid’s pitch is telling. Two Spanish government officials told Madrid Playbook’s Ángel Villarino Perez that Sánchez has received briefings through meetings, weekend crisis sessions and ministerial discussions, and will point to results on returns, border management and arrivals. His headline figure is a 74% fall in arrivals on the Atlantic route, which Madrid attributes partly to cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal.
Read that again. The supposedly liberal side offers fewer arrivals, achieved partly through deals with countries across the water, as proof of success. The dispute with Meloni, then, is about branding and degree. Both leaders measure achievement by how many people don’t get through. The “liberal” government boasts about border results; the “hard-line” camp wants faster returns.
The Pact Rolls On
The key detail for the machinery comes last. The EU official said leaders have put a lot of work into finding common ground on the migration pact, so the broader agreement isn’t expected to be derailed. The shouting match is theatre. Underneath, the pact, the returns rules and the border deals remain in place.
Six weeks before a Spanish snap election, and a year before an Italian one, two leaders will rehearse their differences for the cameras and their voters. Then they’ll go for a drink.