Five diplomats and one official say Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is heading to the European Council ready for a fight over migration. “Of course” there will be one, a senior EU diplomat told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook, adding that it will likely get “quite bloody.” Another diplomat said they wouldn’t be surprised by an “intense” debate. All spoke anonymously.
The clash will pit Sánchez against Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Two diplomats said it will play well with both leaders’ domestic voter bases. Sánchez is behind in the polls ahead of a snap election on Nov. 29, about six weeks away. Meloni faces a tough election next year as far-right challenger Roberto Vannacci gains momentum, one diplomat said. “It will be helpful for Sánchez to pick a fight,” said another EU diplomat. “And it might be helpful for Meloni too.”
The Policy Divide
EU leaders and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are pushing for faster returns and tighter border controls. That puts Sánchez, whose government has pushed more liberal migration policies, at odds with the bloc’s harder line.
Meloni and other EU leaders have already attacked him after the mass arrivals in Ceuta. Spain’s exclave in North Africa is still dealing with the aftermath of an influx of 70,000 people from Morocco in July, about three months ago, according to BBC reporting. King Felipe VI visited Ceuta yesterday and is due in Melilla today.
Madrid’s Case
Two Spanish government officials told Madrid Playbook’s Ángel Villarino Perez that Sánchez has received briefings through meetings, weekend crisis sessions and ministerial discussions. He will point to results on returns, border management and arrivals. One figure stands out: a 74% fall in arrivals on the Atlantic route, which Madrid attributes in part to cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal.
Echoes of June
This row has a precedent. At the June European Council, about four months ago, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen steered discussion toward the EU’s new returns rules. Sánchez criticized the bloc’s hard-line approach. Meloni backed Frederiksen and attacked Spain’s decision to regularize undocumented migrants.
What Comes Next
Diplomats expect little tangible change from the row. “They’ll say lots of things to each other, and then probably go for a drink after,” one said. The EU official said leaders have done a lot of work to get on the same page on the migration pact, so the broader agreement isn’t expected to be derailed.
Why This Matters: Seventy thousand people arrived in Ceuta in a single month. That’s a human emergency no single member state can resolve alone. The reported fight shows how migration has become a campaign instrument in Madrid and Rome, with two leaders who may each gain at home from conflict rather than compromise. Spain’s reported results on the Atlantic route, built on cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal, reflect the partnership-based approach many in Brussels say they want. Yet pressure is mounting for faster returns and tighter controls. If the European Council settles for theatre, people stranded between those positions and the communities receiving them are left waiting for a common European answer that diplomats themselves say isn’t coming this week.