Seventy thousand people crossed from Morocco into Ceuta in July, according to BBC reporting cited by POLITICO. Three months later, the Spanish exclave in North Africa still faces the aftermath. Now, the people who made the journey have become props in a Brussels row that diplomats themselves call political theatre.
Five diplomats and one official told POLITICO's Brussels Playbook that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to arrive at the European Council “spoiling for a fight” over migration. “Of course” there will be a fight, said one senior EU diplomat, adding that it will likely get “quite bloody.” Another said they wouldn’t be surprised by an “intense” debate. All spoke anonymously.
An Argument Staged for the Voters
The diplomats spoke openly about the motives. Sánchez is expected to take on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a move two diplomats said will play well with their domestic voter bases. Sánchez is behind in the polls ahead of a snap election on Nov. 29, about six weeks away. Meloni faces a tough election next year as far-right challenger Roberto Vannacci gains momentum, one diplomat said.
“It will be helpful for Sánchez to pick a fight,” said another EU diplomat. “And it might be helpful for Meloni too.”
The row probably won’t change much. “They’ll say lots of things to each other, and then probably go for a drink after,” one diplomat said.
The Hard Line Hardens
The clash comes as EU leaders and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen press for faster returns and tighter border controls. Sánchez’s government has pushed more liberal migration policies, putting it at odds with that harder line. Meloni and other EU leaders criticised him after the mass arrivals in Ceuta.
At the June European Council, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen steered discussion toward the EU’s new returns rules. Sánchez criticised the bloc’s hard-line approach. Meloni backed Frederiksen and attacked Spain’s decision to regularise undocumented migrants. Regularisation, in other words, was the target. Not deportation. Not border violence.
Deterrence Counted as Success
Two Spanish government officials told Madrid Playbook’s Ángel Villarino Perez that Sánchez has received briefings in meetings, weekend crisis sessions and ministerial discussions. He will point to results on returns, border management and arrivals. He is expected to cite a 74% fall in arrivals on the Atlantic route, which Madrid partly attributes to cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal.
The base reporting says nothing about what happened to the people who no longer arrive, or the conditions in which Mauritania and Senegal now hold them back. Officials present the figure as an achievement. Fewer arrivals are the metric. The people behind the number don’t appear.
King Felipe VI visited Ceuta yesterday and is due in Melilla today.
The Pact Stays Intact
Whatever the shouting, the architecture isn’t in question. The EU official said leaders have put a lot of work into reaching agreement on the migration pact, so the broader deal isn’t expected to be derailed.
The pattern is plain. Leaders will trade accusations over who is tougher or softer, while the machinery of returns and border controls keeps advancing under both. The 70,000 people in Ceuta, and the undocumented migrants Spain chose to regularise, are discussed as electoral ammunition. None of them is quoted.