Seventy thousand people poured into Spain's North African exclave of Ceuta from Morocco in July, according to BBC reporting cited in the base article. The town is still coping with the aftermath. Now, about three months later, EU leaders are preparing to turn the crisis into a stage for a political brawl.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to arrive at the European Council “spoiling for a fight on migration,” five diplomats and one official told POLITICO's Brussels Playbook. “Of course” there will be a fight, said one senior EU diplomat, who added that it will likely get “quite bloody.” Another said they wouldn't be surprised by an “intense” debate. All spoke anonymously.
Who Benefits?
The diplomats didn't hide their views on the motives. Sánchez is behind in the polls ahead of a snap election on Nov. 29, about six weeks away. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a tough election next year as far-right challenger Roberto Vannacci gains momentum, one diplomat said. Two diplomats said a clash between the two will play well with their domestic voter bases.
“It will be helpful for Sánchez to pick a fight,” said another EU diplomat. “And it might be helpful for Meloni too.”
Read that quote twice. Seventy thousand arrivals in one exclave, and diplomats in Brussels describe the row as an electoral convenience.
The Border Question
The clash comes as EU leaders and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen push for faster returns and tighter border controls. Sánchez's government has pursued more liberal migration policies, putting Madrid at odds with the bloc's harder line. Meloni and other EU leaders attacked him after the mass arrivals in Ceuta.
At the June European Council, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen steered the discussion toward the EU's new returns rules. Sánchez criticized the bloc's hard-line approach. Meloni backed Frederiksen and attacked Spain's decision to regularize undocumented migrants. That happened about four months ago.
Two Spanish government officials told Madrid Playbook's Ángel Villarino Perez that Sánchez has received briefings through meetings, weekend crisis sessions and ministerial discussions. He will point to results on returns, border management and arrivals. He is expected to cite a 74% fall in arrivals on the Atlantic route, which Madrid attributes in part to cooperation with Mauritania and Senegal.
That Atlantic figure says nothing about Ceuta, where the numbers went the other way.
Who Decided?
King Felipe VI visited Ceuta yesterday and is due in Melilla today. Residents of the exclave are living with the consequences of July's influx. The people deciding the response, meanwhile, expect to trade barbs in Brussels.
Diplomats expect little to come of it. “They'll say lots of things to each other, and then probably go for a drink after,” one said. An EU official added that leaders have done a lot of work to get on the same page on the migration pact, so the broader agreement isn't expected to be derailed.
That is the forecast from inside the room: heated words, a drink afterwards, and no tangible change. By the diplomats' own account, the same leaders who regularize undocumented migrants or tighten returns do so according to the polling calendar. For the citizens of Ceuta, and for voters across Spain heading to the polls on Nov. 29, the question the diplomats never raised is whether anyone at the table answers to them.