Australia faces a higher bushfire risk this spring as a strengthening El Niño, a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole, dry conditions, increased fuel loads and warmer temperatures combine across much of the country. The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services, or AFAC, says its latest seasonal outlook shows increased fire risk in areas across all jurisdictions except the ACT, with the danger rising in most states and territories over the coming months.
Who Pays for the Weather Gamble
AFAC said the widespread impact is being driven by dry conditions in the country's east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia. That means ordinary people in the places most exposed to heat, drought and fire are the ones being told to prepare early while the conditions that make the danger worse keep building. AFAC CEO Rob Webb said, "The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early," and added, "While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook."
The outlook says increased fuel loads have elevated the fire risk across most of the Northern Territory, despite forecasts suggesting the region could see above-average rainfall in spring. Rainfall is also expected to be higher than normal for most of Western Australia, but the fire risk is high in some areas because of above-average fuel loads and dry soil conditions. Below-average rainfall has increased the bushfire risk across large parts of southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, including Flinders Island. South-east Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and north-west South Australia are also looking at an increased chance of fires.
What the Bureau and the Models Say
Fears have been growing about Australia's spring and summer after the weather bureau declared an El Niño in June, which has the potential to become the strongest on record. El Niño is linked to reduced rainfall, particularly in eastern Australia, and increased temperatures, mainly across the country's south. It often helps load the dice for more extreme fire conditions, and past events have contributed to some of the country's hottest and driest years on record. But predicting what impact the climate pattern will have on Australia each year is notoriously difficult because it's just one factor that influences weather conditions. Other climate drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, also contribute, along with local sea surface temperatures and natural weather variability.
El Niño develops when ocean temperatures in the central Pacific are unusually high. The strength of El Niño, or why some reports have referred to it as a "super El Niño" this year, merely describes its signal, which has been unusually high for this time of year. The last El Niño in 2023-24 brought the warmest winter-spring since records began in 1910, but how it may affect rainfall is less clear.
While rainfall was above average for parts of northern and central Australia last month, it was unusually dry across much of the country's west and sections of the east. Temperatures were also warmer than average across most of the country, and that trend is expected to continue throughout spring. Models suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could emerge before spring, which could exacerbate the impacts of El Niño.
The Fuel Is Already There
David Bowman, a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, said vegetation growth had been "prolific" in forests recovering from bushfires in 2019-20 and it would not take much for that to dry out. He said, "There's a lot of water in the landscape, and that's resulted in a lot of productivity, a lot of fuel," and, "If we were to go into a summer under this El Niño where we had what we call flash droughts, which is really strong heat waves, we can switch up landscapes into extraordinarily dangerous conditions."
Bowman also said, "In eastern Tasmania, there's been a very sustained drying trend; we have had water, but basically it won't take much to nudge landscapes back into a deep drought." That’s the kind of sentence that should make every emergency manager sweat, because the fuel is already sitting there while the weather system keeps turning the screws.
Bowman said climate change has exacerbated Australia's fire season. He said, "Plants are very good at controlling their water use, but if you subject them to very strong heating, you can rapidly stress and dry out landscapes and make the landscapes available for high-intensity fires," and, "My instinct would be to caution against complacency about particularly forest fires."
Bowman said Australia's differences in climate and geography mean it is not necessarily subject to the same fate as Europe, the United States and Canada, but the recent fires there reinforce that fire seasons are worsening. He said, "We are much more advanced in terms of our capacity, but it also is a very good reminder, particularly what's happening in the US and Canada, who are very advanced in managing fire, that they're seeing fire seasons and fire behaviours that are just simply extraordinary," and, "I have every reason to believe that we will see equally extraordinary fires. If it's not this summer, it's certainly going to be in the next [...]." He also said, "We're going to see some very intense fire activity."
The language of "capacity" sounds tidy enough from a distance. On the ground, it means communities are left to read the outlook, brace for the heat, and live with the consequences of decisions made far above them while the fuel loads, dry soil and warmer temperatures keep stacking up.