Supply Chain Shock Threatens Millions as Farming Costs Spiral
Sudan's agricultural sector faces catastrophic disruption as cascading effects from Middle East tensions drive fertilizer and fuel prices beyond the reach of struggling farmers, compounding an already severe humanitarian crisis in a nation ravaged by three years of internal conflict.
Two years after Sudan's war forced him from his land, farmer Omer al-Hassan returned to rebuild his farm. But a new conflict in the Middle East is threatening to push him deeper into financial loss and food insecurity as fuel and fertilizer prices rise. Al-Hassan and other farmers in Sudan are bracing for an expensive planting season in the weeks ahead. Some told The Associated Press they are reducing production or not planting at all, a dangerous development for a country where three years of war have left millions hungry.
The scale of the cost shock is staggering. A 50-kilogram bag of urea fertilizer now costs about $50, up from $11 the same period last year, according to farmer Abdoun Berqawi in Gezira, one of the country's main food-producing regions. Fuel for tractors has risen from $2.50 to $8 per gallon. Overall fuel prices have shot up by around 30%, and food prices in Sudan are jumping too.
The Supply Chain Crisis
The disruption stems from Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, where hundreds of commercial ships have been stranded for weeks. The Gulf region provides over half of Sudan's fertilizer that is imported by sea. This single chokepoint has created a cascading economic crisis for farmers already stressed by the domestic conflict between Sudan's military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
Al-Hassan and 10 other farmers working his land said they cannot handle agricultural costs without government support, forcing cuts in production and rationing of fertilizer on his farm, which also produces potatoes and tomatoes. Mohammed al-Badri, another farmer, said he could afford to plant only half his farm because of rising costs: "The rest of it is nothing."
Sorghum, millet and sesame are now at risk. Some farmers are switching to growing cheaper crops that require less or no fertilizer and scaling back on growing corn, sesame and other rain-fed crops. Mubarak al-Nour, a farmer and former parliamentarian in Gedaref, said even if farmers in Sudan secure fertilizer, delays mean they could miss the planting season that runs from June to November.
Humanitarian Consequences Accelerate
The U.N. World Food Program estimates that 19 million people across Sudan are facing acute hunger, with many families on the brink of famine. Last year, famine was declared in two major regions, Darfur and Kordofan. The humanitarian response has been badly delayed by the Iran war and its effects on supply chains.
WFP has said its Sudan-bound food assistance shipments are traveling 9,000 kilometers (5,500 miles) farther to reach their destination, adding costs and time. Many vessels also avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, another crucial waterway, according to WFP shipping chief Henrik Hansen. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened some shipping there.
In urban areas, the impact is equally severe. Vegetables and dairy have risen by about 40% due to fuel price spikes. Merghany Omar, a farmer in al-Matammah in River Nile province, said farmers who took bank loans risk jail if poor crop yields leave them unable to repay. He said onion farming, a local staple, no longer covers planting costs there.
Melaku Yirga, Mercy Corps vice president for the Africa region, who recently visited Sudan's provinces of Kassala and Gedaref, described the Iran war as triggering a "dangerous chain reaction ... at the wrong moment" as farmers prepare for planting season. "People are buying less food, cutting or skipping meals, selling assets and taking greater risks just to survive," Yirga said. "Mothers are being forced to make painful choices about who gets to eat the little food that is available, while some families are resorting to leaves or animal feed just to get by."
Compounding Vulnerabilities
Samy Guessabi, country director for Action Against Hunger in Sudan, said all of this is occurring alongside existing vulnerabilities including currency depreciation. People in some of the country's most remote areas—Kordofan, White Nile, Darfur and Blue Nile—are hurting the most where "agricultural zones are remote and poorly connected."
Fuel shortages in some areas result from warring parties blocking essential supplies, said Mathilde Vu, an advocacy manager with the Norwegian Refugee Council. She said local fuel markets have been heavily bombed in recent months amid a "senseless escalation" of drone attacks nationwide.
Abdoun Berqawi said the rising costs have created "a dangerous reality" for farmers who will struggle without government intervention. Officials in Sudan's agriculture ministry did not immediately respond to requests for details on how they are addressing the crisis.
Why This Matters:
Sudan's agricultural collapse represents a case study in how geopolitical disruptions in distant regions—the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes—can trigger humanitarian catastrophe in vulnerable nations. With 19 million people facing acute hunger and fertilizer costs quintupling in a single year, the market mechanisms that typically allocate resources have broken down entirely. Farmers face impossible choices: reduce production, take on unsustainable debt, or abandon agriculture altogether. The government's apparent inability to respond compounds the crisis. Meanwhile, humanitarian assistance itself is being delayed and rendered more expensive by the same supply chain disruptions. The combination of internal conflict, external economic shocks, and institutional weakness has created conditions where even basic food security becomes unattainable for millions, illustrating the consequences when multiple systemic failures converge.