Catholic parishes across Arizona, New Mexico and Texas are confronting an institutional crisis as young Latinos abandon the faith at unprecedented rates, undermining projections that a booming Hispanic population would sustain these churches for generations. The exodus threatens the financial viability of legacy schools and congregations that anchored Sun Belt communities for over a century.
Young Latinos are leaving organized religion faster than any other demographic in the United States, according to a new Axios analysis. Among Latinos ages 18 to 29, religious affiliation is plummeting. More now identify as atheist, agnostic or "nothing in particular."
The Numbers Tell the Story
The shift is dramatic and accelerating. The percentage of Hispanic Americans identifying as religiously unaffiliated rose from 18% in 2013 to 23% in 2025, according to an Axios review of data from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute. PRRI reported this year that the overall percentage of Americans without religious affiliation had risen to 28%.
Catholic Latinos experienced an even sharper decline. An Axios review of Pew Research Center data found that the share of Latino adults identifying as Catholic fell from 67% in 2010 to 43% in 2022. That's a 24-point drop in just over a decade. Meanwhile, the percentage of Latinos in U.S. Protestant churches has remained relatively stable at roughly 21% since 2010.
Hispanics make up about 15% of the U.S. population, making these demographic shifts particularly consequential for institutions that built their growth strategies around serving this community.
Assimilation and Gender Dynamics
Analysts say the Catholic exodus is part of one of the fastest religious shifts in modern history, marked by the rapid increase in religiously unaffiliated people and waves of church closures. The secularization trend is being driven largely by young people and assimilation. The younger the demographic, the faster the break from institutional religion.
The "none" revolution is also heavily driven by gender, with young women of color leading the departure from religion, particularly conservative denominations, the Axios data review found.
PRRI CEO Melissa Deckman said, "A lot of young women, including young Latinas, are not buying into the trad wife sort of theme that's often pushed by people on the right to sort of counteract the fact that younger women are more progressive and less religious." She added, "A lot of conservative denominations are doubling down on very patriarchal themes ... and young women, especially, tend to be more vocally supportive of LGBT rights."
Not Just an American Phenomenon
The secularization pipeline isn't just an American assimilation effect, the report said. A Pew Research study this year in Latin America found that the region is seeing massive net losses in Catholic adherents. That means many immigrants arriving in the U.S. from there already are detached from the Catholic Church before they cross the border.
This pre-arrival secularization complicates the institutional challenge facing Catholic parishes. They can't rely on immigration alone to replenish membership when newcomers themselves are increasingly unchurched.
Why This Matters:
The collapse in Catholic affiliation among young Latinos represents a fundamental miscalculation by religious institutions that invested heavily in infrastructure based on demographic projections. Schools, parishes and social service networks built to serve generations of Catholic families now face declining enrollment and revenue. The financial strain will likely force consolidations and closures, particularly in communities where the Church served as a primary social institution. For conservative denominations more broadly, the gender gap in religious affiliation suggests that doctrinal positions on social issues are driving away precisely the young families needed for long-term sustainability. The fact that secularization is now occurring in Latin America itself means U.S. churches can't count on immigration to reverse these trends. This represents a structural shift in American civil society, as religious institutions that historically provided social capital, education and community cohesion lose their hold on the next generation.