A "super" El Niño weather cycle this year could trigger a severe shock to global food prices, economists warn. This comes as the Iran war has already pushed world food prices to their highest level in three years, creating "two shocks at once" for supply chains. The combined effect, stoked by extreme weather linked to global heating, is projected to disproportionately devastate lower-income countries, driving further displacement that will inevitably meet Europe's increasingly militarized borders.
Scientists confirm the 2026-27 El Niño has an unprecedented chance of developing into a "very strong" event. This phenomenon, where warmer water spreads across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, fuels heatwaves, flooding, and stormier weather. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed warming conditions last month, projecting a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C above normal later this year. This environmental catastrophe will hit the Global South hardest, exacerbating existing inequalities and forcing more people to move for survival.
Climate Debt and Colonial Legacies
Households worldwide already face soaring living costs, and experts say an extreme El Niño will add further pressure. Central banks are rattled by the prospect of renewed inflation, fearing elevated interest rates. "El Niño puts 'climateflation' back on the agenda," analysts at UniCredit wrote, noting Europe's recent heatwaves as a reminder of a shifting climate baseline. Yet, the real crisis is not Europe's inflation, but the starvation facing those who contributed least to climate change.
The naturally occurring phenomenon has a long history of affecting harvests and food supply. More than a century ago, an El Niño event, likely the most severe on record, caused catastrophic droughts across China, southern Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and India. This led to famine conditions, worsened by colonial rule, killing millions; over 6 million people died in India alone between 1876 and 1878. This historical precedent underscores the systemic racism embedded in global climate impacts.
NOAA projections indicate the current 2026-27 cycle could be even more severe than past strong events in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16, and 2023-24. This elevates the risk of droughts and flooding hitting harvests and food supply worldwide. Goldman Sachs analysts predict this El Niño could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices. The knock-on effect would include a 1.3% rise in food prices across the eurozone, a minor inconvenience compared to the existential threat faced elsewhere.
Fortress Europe's Indifference
The full effect of these price surges will take time to materialize, potentially until the second half of 2028, due to the complex timing of extreme weather hitting different crop cycles and logistical challenges. UBS analysts note that El Niño "reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers." However, the "losers" are consistently the lower-income countries, already reeling from the Iran conflict, which are likely to suffer most.
El Niño has already begun affecting crops, driving a drier monsoon season in India, with some regions receiving only 25% of their usual rainfall. Parts of central India have received just 50%, threatening wheat, rice, and sugar cane supplies. Droughts in south-east Asia could impact palm oil, coffee, and cocoa harvests, while warmer, wetter conditions could exacerbate disease spread, hitting future crop yields. These are the conditions that force people from their homes, only to be met by Fortress Europe's walls.
While Europe's direct weather conditions may not be as severely impacted, the effect on global food prices will be felt. Three years ago, the European Central Bank estimated a strong El Niño could drive global food commodity prices up by 9%, with soya beans, corn, and rice seeing the biggest spikes. The EU's concern remains economic stability within its borders, not the human cost beyond them.
The Looming Catastrophe
UniCredit maintains that the capacity for an extreme El Niño scenario remains high. This could lead to a 14.3% hit to global agricultural production, equivalent to $342bn in lost output. The bank warns that "price shocks could reach 10% to 50% across core commodities," with the most exposed crops—including rice, palm oil, sugar, and coffee—potentially rising by "50% to 100% or more." The global food system, it concludes, "enters the second half of 2026 with buffers, but with little margin for error." This stark reality means millions will face famine, and Europe's response will define its commitment to human rights, or its continued embrace of border violence.