Taiwan President Lai Ching-te told his country Saturday that it will keep building up its defenses and won’t trade away its freedom. He framed military investment as the price of keeping any dialogue with Beijing on honorable terms.
“Taiwan cherishes peace, but we will not give up our freedom. We are open to exchanges, but will not accept subordination,” Lai said in his National Day speech. He argued that money flowing into Taiwan’s armed forces aims to deter war, not provoke it. “We are strengthening our self-defence not to abandon dialogue, but to ensure that dialogue can take place on the basis of parity and dignity,” he said.
Deterrence Over Wishful Thinking
Lai was blunt about the limits of good intentions. Peace, he said, can’t rely solely on “wishes.” He described Taiwan’s resolve as a matter not only of survival in the face of “authoritarian expansion,” but also of whether the international community believes force can’t override rules or strip people of their right to determine their future.
The island is putting real resources behind that message. Taiwan is ramping up defense spending and modernising its armed forces, even as it faces a Chinese military far larger than its own. It’s adding advanced weapons, including stealth fighter jets, aircraft carriers and a large array of missiles.
Lai also welcomed efforts by the United States and China to manage their competition through dialogue and reduce the risk of conflict. But he didn’t stop there. “Democracies in the Indo-Pacific must join forces to ensure the status quo of peace and stability in the region is not changed,” he said.
Beijing’s Pressure Campaign
China views Taiwan as its territory, a breakaway province to be retaken by force if necessary, according to the reports. It has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. It calls Lai a “separatist” and has rebuffed his offers of talks. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the speech.
The pressure runs through Washington, too. In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart he hoped the United States would adhere to “the correct position of opposing ‘Taiwan independence’” during his visit to Washington. China has pressed Washington to halt arms sales to Taiwan, most prominently during a May summit in Beijing between Trump and Xi. After that meeting, a record $14 billion arms package to the island stalled.
The military pattern is striking. In 2024, shortly after Lai’s first National Day speech as president, China held war games around the island. It didn’t do so last year. Its last war games near Taiwan came in late December, after news of an $11-billion U.S. arms deal for Taipei, described as the largest ever.
Friends Show Up
Lai’s office said foreign guests joined the celebration. Eswatini King Mswati III, whose country is Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally in Africa, attended. So did Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith of the U.S. state of Indiana, who offered congratulations in Taiwan. A Japanese parliamentary delegation also visited and joined the festivities.
Japan’s posture has already drawn Beijing’s ire. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi angered China last November by saying a hypothetical Chinese military action against Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan that would justify Japanese troop engagement.
A Divided History
China and Taiwan have governed themselves separately since 1949, 77 years ago, when a civil war brought the Communist Party to power in Beijing and defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan. Taiwan has run its own government ever since. National Day marks the anniversary of a 1911 uprising that toppled China’s last imperial dynasty and established the Republic of China, which remains the island’s formal name.
Why This Matters:
Lai’s speech lays out a simple bargain: talks, yes, but from a position where Taiwan isn’t forced to bargain from weakness. That’s the logic of deterrence, and it carries costs. Taiwan is committing substantial resources to modern arms while a record $14 billion U.S. package sits stalled after the May Trump-Xi summit. Whether allies follow words with delivery will shape the island’s readiness. For markets and governments across the Indo-Pacific, the stakes reach well beyond Taipei. Lai’s call for democracies to hold the regional status quo together puts pressure on partners like Japan and the United States to match rhetoric with capability. From a center-right view, credible defense is the foundation that makes diplomacy possible.