On the tenth anniversary of Britain's vote to leave the European Union, the bloc has emerged more unified and attractive to prospective members, while the UK has "slid down the list of priorities" as Europe confronts existential threats from Russian aggression and economic competition from China. Far from triggering the domino effect of exits predicted by right-wing populists, Brexit has instead served as a cautionary tale that dampened appetite for leaving across the continent.
A Warning, Not a Template
Michael Roth, Germany's former Europe minister, said Brexit "changed the EU in one fundamental way. Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It's seen as a warning. The Brexit experience was so damaging, so costly, so complicated, so complex, that the appetite for that across the EU is very, very, very, very, very, very little." Despite heated talk of Frexit, Nexit and Swexit from far-right leaders including France's Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands' Geert Wilders and Italy's Matteo Salvini in 2016, not a single country followed the UK out of the union.
Instead, countries are now queueing to join. The EU started detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine this month, while accession prospects for western Balkan countries look more promising than at any time over the last decade. Iceland plans a referendum on resuming EU accession talks, and support for membership is growing in Norway, though it remains a minority view there. Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission now based at the Bruegel economic thinktank, said the UK is "one of many countries seeking a closer relationship" with the bloc.
Security Integration Accelerated
Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who led the European Council from 2019 to 2024, said Brexit made decisions "easier … no doubt." He said the Brexit vote made it easier for the EU to be more engaged in defence and security policy, which proved useful preparation for Russia's full-scale invasion. In March 2021, the EU created the European Peace Facility to fund military equipment and operations abroad. Originally worth €5bn, the pot has grown to €17bn (£15bn) and has been supplemented by far greater financing to rearm the continent and support Ukraine.
When Russia launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Michel recalled, the EU and UK were united on support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. "We were systematically, spontaneously, very close to each other, without the need for complicated preparatory tools," he said. However, Michel also said he missed British influence on economic policy and regulation of technology, such as AI.
Weakened UK Position
Grabbe said the UK has "slid down the list of priorities" as the EU confronts Russia's war, Chinese economic competition and "whatever crazy thing Trump has done today." Michel said he expected the EU would react with "a positive spirit" should the UK ever seek to rejoin, though his personal belief was that the UK was "weaker" than when it was a member of the EU. For now, no one sees the UK rejoining as a serious prospect.
The two sides will hold a "reset" summit on 22 July, with the aims of striking a veterinary deal to ease checks on food and drink, linking emissions trading schemes and forging a youth mobility programme. Roth said EU-UK relations were "quite OK – actually better than many expected," because the EU "no longer has to deal with British exceptionalism" inside its institutions. One senior EU diplomat said: "On many issues, when the Brits were a part of the EU, we were very like-minded — on the internal market, on free trade, on the transatlantic relationship — and there we miss the UK. But it is a fact of life, so there is no nostalgia."
Political Instability Across the Bloc
Many of the EU's key figures are in relatively weak positions, making it hard to claim any firm ideological shift. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has seen his support fall to historic lows one year after taking office. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has been in domestic political stasis after a snap election in 2024 yielded a French parliament with no majority. Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has won plaudits over his foreign policy stances, but his minority government is mired in corruption scandals. In Poland, a president opposed to the agenda of the prime minister, Donald Tusk, has made it hard to fulfil campaign promises, while in Italy, even Giorgia Meloni, who leads one of the EU's most stable governments, has been damaged by losing a referendum on judicial reform.
For a long time, the EU's vulnerabilities were exposed by Hungary, as its leader, Viktor Orbán, served as disruptor-in-chief, exercising vetoes over big decisions. With Orbán now defeated at the ballot box, the bloc's officials are considering contingency plans to prevent future vetoes by new joiners who turn rogue. Grabbe has long argued that authoritarian insiders pose a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit. "The UK was an awkward partner, but it was a reliable partner," she said, contrasting British implementation of EU decisions with Orbán's broken promise to back a €90bn loan for Ukraine.
Why This Matters:
The tenth anniversary of Brexit reveals how working-class communities and ordinary citizens in the UK have borne the costs of a decision that weakened British influence while strengthening European integration. The EU's expansion toward Ukraine and Moldova, driven by collective security needs in the fifth year of the conflict with Russia, demonstrates the enduring appeal of multilateral cooperation and shared democratic institutions. Meanwhile, the UK's diminished standing shows the limits of nationalist approaches to global challenges like climate change, technological regulation, and economic competition. The contrast between countries seeking EU membership and Britain's isolation underscores how international cooperation and regulated markets offer stronger protections for workers and communities than going it alone. As authoritarian threats from figures like Orbán test democratic norms, the EU's ability to defend rule of law and collective action remains critical for millions of Europeans whose rights and livelihoods depend on strong, accountable institutions.