James Talarico's black campaign bus rolled into Eagle Pass this month, pulling up to Memo's Restaurant with a mission: reconnect with Hispanic voters who shifted Republican in 2024. The Democratic Senate candidate is battling Ken Paxton in a race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate, and he's confronting a political realignment that shocked the nation.
Bibi Valdez watched the bus arrive. She'd seen the shift herself. "A lot of people, for some reason, especially the Hispanics, changed to Republican," she said. "I just don't see what the logic was." The border counties Talarico visited became national political curiosities after the 2024 election, when most voted for Donald Trump—some by wide margins—after decades of Democratic loyalty.
The Economic Message
Talarico, a former middle school teacher and state lawmaker seeking to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas since 1994, didn't dwell on border security during his stop. He focused on the economy instead. "So many politicians show up at the border to demonize and weaponize," he told the crowd at Memo's. "We are doing the opposite. We are showing the beauty of our border communities."
He called the economic system "rigged" to favor "mega donors" and labeled Paxton a "puppet politician" for the wealthy. "We can't get ahead no matter how hard we work, no matter how much we save, because the system is rigged against us," Talarico said. Residents and elected leaders along the border point to two factors behind the Republican shift: the rise in border crossings and everyday prices. Border crossings have dropped dramatically since 2024, but the cost of living remains high.
A Familiar Pattern
Talarico isn't the first Democratic Senate candidate to draw crowds and spark hope in Texas. Beto O'Rourke made a similar run 8 years ago and lost. Republicans remain confident, but Democrats see openings. While Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, AP-NORC polling shows his support among Hispanics has fallen since he took office. Only 29% of Hispanic adults nationally approved of his performance in a June poll, down from 41% at the start of his second term.
In communities along the Rio Grande, the migrant surge wasn't abstract. People recall hundreds huddled under bridges in reflective emergency blankets, the strain on local businesses and town budgets. Some say little aid came from the Biden administration. Hector Flores, 72, sat with two friends at a McDonald's in Maverick County, about an hour south of Memo's. "It was a nightmare because of him," he said of Biden. "Now, you don't see no immigrants."
Maverick County had one of the sharpest swings toward Trump of any county in the country in 2024, moving from backing Biden by 10 percentage points 6 years ago to supporting Trump by 19 points 2 years ago. The three men weren't closely following the Senate race, but they discussed the same issues the candidates have been debating: high costs, ICE enforcement, and social issues.
Eduardo "Lalo" Riojas, 73, said, "You go down to HEB to buy merchandise, groceries"—Flores supplied the word: "Expensive." Riojas, who supports Talarico, added, "Mr. Trump is crazy." Flores, who works with orphanages across the border in Mexico, said high prices weren't making him question his Republican vote. "I love ICE," he said.
Paxton's Conservative Appeal
Mike Garcia, 76, who voted for Trump three times in a row, expressed concern about deportations. "The ones they're killing, some of them, been here in the United States for years and years and got children," he said. He called Paxton's reputation "horrible," referencing the attorney general's impeachment, acquittal, and allegations of corruption and extramarital affairs. Garcia also said he was bothered by comments Talarico made about God's gender—a statement Paxton has weaponized to attack his opponent. Garcia said he still didn't know which candidate he'd support in November.
Paxton has leaned heavily on immigration enforcement, including during his own border stop in the Rio Grande Valley. In McAllen, he promoted the lawsuits he filed against the Biden administration over immigration enforcement and cited his endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council. He repeated his attacks on Talarico, including the Democrat's statement that "God is nonbinary," which Talarico, a seminary student, said on the Texas House floor several years ago while citing Scripture.
Alex Alarcon, Paxton's campaign director of Hispanic outreach, called Talarico "wimpy" and said, "Hispanics know Ken Paxton is a strong man who shares our values, and we see in James Talarico a wimpy liberal. No one looks at him and thinks, now there's a guy who'll protect us from the cartels."
Talarico's Border Plan
Talarico didn't avoid immigration enforcement entirely during his border tour. At a news conference in Sanderson, he stood with local sheriffs and pledged investment in surveillance technology to catch illegal crossings and to hire more border patrol agents and immigration judges. After a town hall where voters complained about rent, property taxes, and healthcare, he acknowledged Democratic failures. "The Biden administration failed border communities like this, and so people were feeling disillusioned," he said. "They were open to an alternative and Republicans came down here with some big promises. Now, they're seeing a lot of those promises weren't kept."
Why This Matters:
The battle for Hispanic voters along the Texas border reflects broader tensions over how Democrats address working-class economic anxiety and immigration policy. Talarico's focus on a "rigged" economic system and investment in public services contrasts with Paxton's cultural appeals and tough-on-immigration stance. The outcome will reveal whether voters prioritize economic fairness and institutional support or cultural conservatism and enforcement. With Senate control hanging in the balance, the race tests whether Democrats can rebuild trust in communities that felt abandoned during the border crisis—and whether acknowledging past failures while proposing systemic solutions can overcome the Republican gains of 2024. The declining approval ratings for Trump among Hispanics suggest an opening, but translating national sentiment into Texas votes remains the challenge that's eluded Democrats for more than three decades.