James Talarico faces an uphill climb in his Democratic Senate campaign against Republican Ken Paxton, attempting to reverse a dramatic Hispanic voter realignment along the Texas border that saw once-reliable Democratic counties swing sharply toward the GOP. The former middle school teacher and state lawmaker is seeking to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994, a 32-year drought that underscores the party's struggles in America's second-largest state.
The challenge became starkly visible during Talarico's border trip 12 days ago, when his black campaign bus rolled into Eagle Pass. Bibi Valdez, watching the arrival at Memo's Restaurant, captured the Democratic dilemma. "A lot of people, for some reason, especially the Hispanics, changed to Republican," she said. "I just don't see what the logic was."
The Border Realignment
The border counties Talarico visited became national political curiosities after the 2024 election. Once consistently Democratic, most voted for Republican President Donald Trump, some by a lot, as Hispanic voters shifted to the right nationally. Maverick County delivered one of the sharpest swings toward Trump of any county in the country in 2024, moving from backing Biden by 10 percentage points 6 years ago to supporting Trump by 19 points 2 years ago.
Residents and elected leaders along the border point to two reasons: the rise in border crossings and everyday prices. Border crossings dropped dramatically since 2024, while the cost of living remains high. Hector Flores, 72, sitting with two friends at a McDonald's in Maverick County about an hour south of Memo's Restaurant, said, "It was a nightmare because of him," referring to President Joe Biden. "Now, you don't see no immigrants."
The three men weren't closely following the Senate race, but they were talking about the same issues Talarico and Paxton have been discussing, including high costs, ICE and social issues. Eduardo "Lalo" Riojas, 73, said, "You go down to HEB to buy merchandise, groceries," before Flores supplied the word: "Expensive."
Talarico's Economic Pitch
At Memo's Restaurant, Talarico told the crowd, "So many politicians show up at the border to demonize and weaponize. We are doing the opposite. We are showing the beauty of our border communities." He said little about the border itself during the stop and instead focused on the economy, which he says is rigged to help "mega donors." He called Paxton a "puppet politician" for the wealthy and said, "We can't get ahead no matter how hard we work, no matter how much we save, because the system is rigged against us."
Talarico isn't the first Democratic Senate candidate in recent years to draw crowds and give the party hope in Texas. Beto O'Rourke made a similar run 8 years ago and failed. After a town hall where voters complained about rent, property taxes and healthcare, Talarico acknowledged, "The Biden administration failed border communities like this, and so people were feeling disillusioned. They were open to an alternative and Republicans came down here with some big promises." He added, "Now, they're seeing a lot of those promises weren't kept."
Paxton's Conservative Appeal
Paxton has leaned on immigration enforcement, including during his own border stop in the Rio Grande Valley. In McAllen, he spoke in a circle of supporters, promoted the lawsuits he filed against the Biden administration over immigration enforcement and cited his endorsement from the National Border Patrol Council. He also repeated his attacks on Talarico, including the Democrat's statement that "God is nonbinary," which Talarico, a seminary student, said on the Texas House floor several years ago while citing Scripture.
Paxton's campaign director of Hispanic outreach, Alex Alarcon, said Paxton has delivered what Hispanics want, including taking on criminals and companies that gouge consumers. He called Talarico "wimpy" and said, "Hispanics know Ken Paxton is a strong man who shares our values, and we see in James Talarico a wimpy liberal. No one looks at him and thinks, now there's a guy who'll protect us from the cartels."
The cultural issues may be resonating. Mike Garcia, 76, who said he voted for Trump three times in a row, said he was bothered by comments Talarico has made about God's gender. Garcia also said Paxton, who has been impeached, then acquitted, and faced allegations of corruption and extramarital affairs, has a "horrible reputation." Yet Garcia said he still didn't know which candidate he would support in November.
Shifting National Trends
Republicans remain confident about Texas, but Democrats see some reason for optimism. While Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, AP-NORC polling shows opinions of the president have fallen among Hispanics overall since he took office. Only 29% of Hispanic adults nationally approved of his performance as president in a June poll 1 month ago, down from 41% at the start of his second term.
In communities along the Rio Grande, which defines the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, the ebb and flow of migrants isn't abstract. People there still recall hundreds huddled in reflective emergency blankets under a bridge and the hit to local businesses and town coffers. Some said little aid came from the Biden administration. Flores, who works with orphanages across the border in Mexico, said high prices weren't making him question his Republican vote, and he said, "I love ICE."
Talarico didn't avoid immigration enforcement entirely during his border tour. At a news conference in Sanderson, Texas, he stood with local sheriffs and pledged investment in surveillance technology to catch illegal crossings and to hire more border patrol agents and immigration judges.
Why This Matters:
The Texas Senate race reveals the lasting political consequences of the Biden administration's border policies and persistent inflation. Hispanic voters along the border shifted dramatically toward Republicans not on cultural issues alone, but on concrete concerns about border security and economic stability that directly affected their communities. Talarico's acknowledgment that "the Biden administration failed border communities" represents a significant admission from a Democratic candidate about his party's vulnerabilities on issues where voters prioritize results over rhetoric. The race could help decide control of the U.S. Senate, and Paxton's ability to maintain Hispanic support despite personal controversies suggests that border security and economic concerns are overriding traditional political loyalties. Whether Trump's declining approval among Hispanics nationally translates to Texas remains uncertain, but the dramatic county-level swings from 2020 to 2024 demonstrate that Hispanic voters aren't a monolithic bloc and respond to governance failures with electoral consequences.