SoFi CEO Anthony Noto is sounding the alarm. Uncertainty over artificial intelligence regulation weighs heavily on U.S. businesses preparing for an AI-driven economy, with staggering financial stakes.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated that private firms in the United States would likely spend around $280 billion on AI in 2026 alone. Yet companies are making this massive investment in a regulatory vacuum. “There’s no real framework in place,” Noto said, describing how technology races ahead while policymakers lag behind.
Noto leads SoFi, a bank and financial technology company with $61 billion in assets. The firm recently introduced an AI-enabled investment tool and a chatbot-powered financial guide. Like other corporate leaders, he’s watching political developments closely. Potential presidential contenders are proposing policies for AI’s future development and economic role. As political power changes hands, “we could start to move faster toward some type of regulation around artificial intelligence more broadly,” he noted.
The problem isn’t just uncertainty for tech giants. New rules would affect the largest technology companies, but could also “have an impact on our businesses,” Noto warned. For SoFi, which is building on top of existing AI platforms, regulatory decisions in Washington or Sacramento could reshape the economics of its entire strategy.
The Innovation Paradox
Here’s what makes this moment unusual: roughly 70% of S&P 500-listed companies are deploying AI technology in some form, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. Yet far fewer have shown that it’s generating returns. Companies are making enormous bets on a technology that’s still unproven as a profit engine.
The technology creators’ own attitude stands out. “Constraints are being asked for by the super scalers, the creators of the actual technology,” Noto said. “And the people that are developing the platforms are asking for help.” He called that “counter to any other innovation that I’ve seen.” Typically, innovators resist regulation. Not this time.
Questions about AI safety and alignment have occupied Silicon Valley leaders including Sam Altman and Peter Thiel. Technology thinkers gathered in Berkeley last weekend to wrestle with these issues. AI labs haven’t agreed on binding, politically feasible plans, while politicians from Sacramento to Washington are trying to address the lack of policy as voters voice fears of AI-related disasters.
Caution Over Speed
Noto isn’t advocating for a specific regulatory approach. Instead, he’s counseling prudence. SoFi’s business model is durable, he argues, and the company is avoiding strategies he considers short-lived, such as prediction markets. “Sometimes moving slower is better than moving faster,” Noto said, “and I would say in this particular circumstance, moving slower is definitely more favorable than moving fast.”
SoFi has already learned hard lessons about regulatory whiplash. The company closed its crypto trading platform after FTX’s collapse led to a sweeping federal crackdown on digital-asset marketplaces. But when banking regulators loosened their approach following President Donald Trump’s return to office, SoFi “sprinted pretty aggressively to be able to reenter the offering for consumers.” The company now offers crypto trading and has launched its own dollar-pegged stablecoin.
The political environment matters enormously. Democrats are expected to retake control of the House and possibly the Senate. That shift could leave corporate leaders facing a less accommodating political and regulatory environment than during the early days of Trump 2.0, especially as debates intensify about AI labs and the technology’s role in finance and commerce.
Noto acknowledges many opportunities remain in AI. But regulatory uncertainty clouds the road ahead. Companies are spending at an unprecedented scale—$280 billion this year alone—without knowing what the rules of the road will be. For investors and business leaders, that’s not just an operational challenge. It’s a fundamental risk to capital allocation.
Why This Matters:
The $280 billion that U.S. firms are investing in AI this year represents a massive commitment of private capital under regulatory uncertainty. When companies like SoFi must repeatedly adjust strategy based on shifting regulatory winds—as they did with crypto trading—it wastes resources and discourages long-term planning. The fact that 70% of major corporations are deploying AI, yet few have demonstrated returns, suggests significant capital may be misallocated. More critically, the lack of a coherent federal framework creates incentives for regulatory arbitrage, forum shopping, and fragmented state-level rules that increase compliance costs. When technology creators themselves request government constraints—an unusual position—it signals genuine concerns about liability and political backlash. For investors and businesses, the cost isn’t just the $280 billion in direct spending. It’s the opportunity cost of strategy frozen by uncertainty, and the risk that reactive regulation, once it arrives, will be poorly designed and economically destructive.