America's Democratic Party has begun its 2028 presidential contest nearly two years before voters cast ballots in Iowa and New Hampshire, with governors, senators and former cabinet officials positioning themselves through fundraising events, media appearances and policy speeches — while insisting they're focused entirely on their current jobs.
No one's announced. Everyone's preparing. Across the United States, Democratic governors are leading fundraising events in states that hold early presidential primaries. Senators are publishing memoirs. Cabinet veterans are making carefully choreographed television appearances. Members of Congress are building enormous social media audiences. Political action committees are quietly hiring staff, donors are taking meetings, pollsters are testing slogans, and consultants are mapping delegate strategies.
The Shadow Campaign
Washington strategists call this the "Invisible Primary," a sprawling shadow campaign in which dozens of ambitious Democrats are competing for influence long before a candidate files official paperwork. The party is entering what may be its most unpredictable presidential contest in half a century — a genuine open primary with no incumbent president, no sitting vice president automatically inheriting the mantle, and no obvious consensus leader.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has embraced the shadow campaign more visibly than most. For years, Newsom has carefully expanded his national profile through televised debates with conservative figures, appearances in Republican-led states, high-profile podcast interviews and relentless criticism of the Trump administration. His message is that Democrats can't simply oppose Republicans; they must beat them in the national argument. He's cultivated major donors, developed relationships with labour unions and positioned himself as one of the party's most recognizable communicators. Republicans would relish running against a California governor, portraying Newsom as the embodiment of progressive excess.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has become the example for Democrats looking for proof that liberal politics can still succeed in deeply conservative territory. Twice elected in one of America's most Republican states, Beshear has cultivated a calm, bipartisan image focused on disaster response, healthcare and economic development. His recent public call for greater transparency regarding Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell's health reinforced that image. His challenge is whether a governor with relatively limited national exposure can translate regional popularity into a national movement.
The Policy Debate
The stakes go beyond personalities. Democrats are still wrestling with the political lessons of the Trump era. The party is debating whether to move toward the centre to reclaim suburban moderates or embrace a more populist economic message that energizes younger voters. It's also weighing whether immigration should remain a defining issue, whether climate politics can be reframed around jobs rather than sacrifice, and how to address cultural issues that Republicans have used effectively against it in recent elections. The eventual nominee won't simply inherit a coalition. They'll define what the Democratic Party represents after nearly a decade dominated by Donald Trump.
Former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg remains one of the party's most effective television advocates, regularly appearing on conservative networks where he calmly dismantles Republican arguments. Since his surprisingly strong 2020 presidential campaign 6 years ago, Buttigieg has expanded his political profile beyond policy expertise into broader discussions of democracy, economics and American identity. Supporters say he represents the next generation of Democratic leadership, while critics question whether his appeal extends beyond highly educated suburban voters.
New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has undergone a remarkable political transformation inside the Democratic Party. Once dismissed by moderates as a protest candidate, she's become one of the party's most influential national figures. Her enormous online following gives her direct access to millions of younger voters without relying on traditional media. Supporters increasingly argue that the party can't afford to nominate another cautious centrist, while critics fear her progressive brand remains too polarizing in key swing states.
The Battleground Governors
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro occupies another attractive lane. Young, articulate and governing perhaps the country's most important battleground state, Shapiro has steadily accumulated national attention through bipartisan infrastructure projects and crisis management. Many Democratic strategists privately view Pennsylvania as indispensable in any Electoral College path back to the White House.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has something every presidential candidate values: resources. As one of America's wealthiest politicians, with the Pritzker family owning the Hyatt hotel chain, he can finance enormous political operations while presenting himself as an unapologetic defender of progressive priorities, organized labour and abortion rights. His willingness to aggressively confront Republicans has made him increasingly popular among Democratic activists, though whether that popularity extends nationally remains an open question.
Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock continues to attract quiet presidential speculation. His personal story, from pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church to senator representing one of America's most competitive states, gives him a uniquely inspirational profile. But many Democrats believe his political future may ultimately lie in 2032 rather than 2028, allowing additional time to build national experience.
The Harris Question
No figure generates more uncertainty than former Vice President Kamala Harris. After leading the Democratic ticket in 2024, 2 years ago, Harris remains one of the party's best-known figures. Her national organization, fundraising network and political experience would instantly make her one of the strongest contenders if she chooses to run. Yet many Democrats continue debating whether the party should embrace a familiar national figure or turn decisively toward a new generation. Her decision, or refusal, to run may shape the entire field.
The dark horses are already in the conversation. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has begun attracting increasing attention as Democrats search for a figure capable of appealing across ideological factions, although he continues to deny presidential ambitions while focusing on his Senate campaign. Maryland Governor Wes Moore continues to impress donors with his biography and executive style. Even Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy or former Chicago Mayor and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel could emerge if the better-known contenders falter.
The rules of presidential politics have changed. The invisible primary now plays out continuously online. Candidates no longer need speeches in Iowa to build momentum. A single podcast interview can reach millions of viewers, dominate the news cycle and elevate a candidate's national profile overnight. A viral TikTok clip may reach more young voters than weeks of television advertising. Every policy address becomes campaign content. Every overseas trip is scrutinized as a test of presidential leadership, and every cable news interview serves as a miniature presidential debate.
Hovering over the field is former President Barack Obama, who isn't running. He remains perhaps the Democratic Party's single most influential voice. Although he's carefully avoided endorsing any potential successor, many party leaders believe his opinion could become decisive if the primary remains fragmented. Whether Obama ultimately plays kingmaker or deliberately stays neutral could shape donor behaviour and elite endorsements across the party.
For now, every prospective presidential hopeful insists that 2026, or in some states 2027, is the immediate priority. Governors must govern while senators must defend their seats. Democrats must first prove they can regain congressional power before dreaming about recapturing the White House. Yet every campaign stop, fundraising dinner and national television appearance is being viewed through another lens. Who looked presidential? Who impressed donors? Who connected with younger voters? Who survived the week's headlines?
Why This Matters:
The American presidential race matters to Europe because the transatlantic relationship depends on who occupies the White House. A Democratic primary that begins nearly two years before the first votes are cast reveals a party still searching for a coherent answer to populism, economic anxiety and cultural division — the same forces reshaping European politics. Whether Democrats move toward the centre or embrace a more progressive economic message will influence how European centre-left parties position themselves. The outcome will also determine America's approach to NATO, trade policy, climate agreements and support for Ukraine. Europe can't afford to ignore a contest that will shape the next four years of Western foreign policy. The invisible primary is already underway, and the stakes extend far beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.