As major corporations prepare to report earnings this week, the results will offer critical insights into how working families are faring amid persistent economic headwinds, including elevated mortgage rates and renewed inflation pressures linked to the Iran war.
Home Depot, TJX Companies, and Nvidia headline a packed week of corporate earnings, while Alphabet's annual I/O developer conference will showcase how technology giants are positioning artificial intelligence investments that could reshape labor markets and consumer access to services.
Housing Affordability Crisis Deepens
Home Depot is scheduled to report Tuesday morning, with same-store sales growth expected to reach just 0.8% in the first quarter, according to FactSet. The modest forecast reflects a housing market under severe strain since February, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate started climbing higher. Home Depot's stock has been crushed since that time and now trades at multiyear lows, a stark indicator of how rising borrowing costs are pricing families out of homeownership and home improvement projects.
When Home Depot reported fourth-quarter results in February, the economic backdrop shifted dramatically just days later with the start of the Iran war, which has rekindled inflation and further squeezed household budgets. Analysts at Bernstein said they do not expect Home Depot to revise its full-year guidance of flat to 2% same-store sales growth, saying the forecast "contemplated a wide range of scenarios." Revenue is expected to be $41.53 billion and earnings per share are expected to be $3.41.
Bernstein also noted that Home Depot's SRS Distribution subsidiary may benefit from storm-related repair activity in the quarter. Home Depot acquired SRS in 2024 as part of an aggressive push to court professional contractors who rely on wholesale distributors. It also just finalized the acquisition of an HVAC distributor.
Retail Sector Faces Freight Cost Pressures
Fellow retailer TJX Companies is expected to report Wednesday morning, with Wall Street projecting same-store sales growth of 4.1% in the quarter. Investors will be watching for continued growth in transactions, a key measure of whether budget-conscious consumers are maintaining spending. The company is also expected to comment on freight costs, which have risen because of the Iran war after declining in recent quarters and providing margin relief. Revenue is expected to be $13.98 billion and earnings per share are expected to be $1.01.
Tech Giants Face Scrutiny on AI Investment
Nvidia, the world's most valuable company and the leading maker of artificial intelligence chips, is due to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday night. The company is worth $5.56 trillion, and analysts say a "beat and raise" is the minimum requirement, meaning the company needs to beat consensus and guide above expectations for the current quarter.
Investors will be listening for commentary from CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress on whether the investment cycle may soon slow, as well as on Nvidia's visibility into the $1 trillion sales forecast Huang issued in March at its GTC conference for sales of its Blackwell and Rubin systems starting last year through 2027. Nvidia faces growing competition in the AI chip space from Advanced Micro Devices and custom silicon providers like Broadcom and Marvell, which work with large tech companies to design specialized chips.
Analysts also want an update on capital returns to shareholders. Nvidia currently pays a quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, resulting in a yield of 0.02%. It paid out $974 million in dividends in its fiscal year 2026, which ended in January. Nvidia repurchased $40.09 billion worth of stock last fiscal year and had $58.5 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization. FactSet projects free cash flow of $182 billion this fiscal year and even higher in the next two after that. A larger buyback would return cash, increase future per-share earnings by reducing the share count and not require future payouts beyond the authorization amount, while a dividend increase would signal confidence in demand but would commit the company to annual payouts.
Google's AI Strategy Under Watch
Alphabet will host its annual I/O developer conference on Tuesday and Wednesday, and also will hold its Google Marketing Live event on Wednesday. The I/O conference is expected to strengthen Google's AI positioning, though Bank of America analysts warned that the lack of a "wow" announcement could pressure the stock. Rumors suggest Google may unveil or tease its Gemini 4 AI model, following the success of Gemini 3 in November, which sent shares rallying.
Investors will also watch for how Google weaves AI into its other offerings, including updates on new agentic AI capabilities, robotics, AI wearables such as smart glasses and the broader rollout of Waymo. Google Marketing Live on Wednesday will be watched for commentary on AI monetization and new advertising tools. CEO Sundar Pichai said on the company's first-quarter earnings call that queries are already at an all-time high and that AI usage is driving Google Search usage. Google's in-house TPU chips are key to its AI efforts, but since the company just unveiled the eighth-generation family at a Google Cloud event in late April, there are low expectations for major silicon news.
Economic Data and Broader Market Calendar
The week ahead also includes a number of scheduled economic and corporate events. On Monday, May 18, Baidu is set to report before the bell. On Tuesday, May 19, pending home sales are due at 10 a.m. ET, and before the bell Home Depot, Vertiv, Amer Sports, KE Holdings, and Bilibili are scheduled to report, with Keysight, Toll Brothers and CAVA after the bell. On Wednesday, May 20, Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes are due at 2 p.m. ET, with TJX Companies, Target, Analog Devices, VF Corp, ZIM Integrated, Lowe's, Arcos, Hasbro and Baozun before the bell and Nvidia, Intuit and Urban Outfitters after the bell. On Thursday, May 21, initial jobless claims, housing starts and S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI are due, with NIO, Deere, Walmart, Advance Auto Parts, NetEase and Vipshop before the bell and Deckers, Take-Two, Workday, Zoom, Copart and Ross Stores after the bell. On Friday, May 22, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is due at 10 a.m. ET, with Booz Allen Hamilton and BJ's before the bell.
Why This Matters:
This week's earnings reports and economic data will provide crucial evidence of how working families and consumers are weathering a challenging economic environment marked by elevated mortgage rates, war-driven inflation, and rising costs. Home Depot's struggles reflect the housing affordability crisis that continues to lock millions of Americans out of homeownership and home improvement, while TJX's freight cost pressures illustrate how geopolitical instability translates directly into higher prices at checkout. Nvidia's massive cash generation and shareholder returns raise important questions about whether AI investments are creating broad-based economic opportunity or concentrating wealth among investors and executives. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and jobless claims data will offer insight into whether policymakers are adequately balancing inflation concerns with the need to protect employment. Consumer sentiment data will reveal whether households feel the economy is working for them or leaving them behind.