Investors face a critical week of earnings reports and technology showcases that will test corporate America's ability to navigate inflation pressures and justify massive AI investments, with Nvidia's Wednesday night earnings release standing as the marquee event for a market increasingly focused on returns rather than promises.
Nvidia, the world's most valuable company and the leading maker of artificial intelligence chips, is due to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday night. Analysts say a "beat and raise" is the minimum requirement, meaning the company needs to beat consensus and guide above expectations for the current quarter. The company is worth $5.56 trillion, and FactSet projects free cash flow of $182 billion this fiscal year and even higher in the next two after that.
Shareholder Returns Under Scrutiny
Investors will be listening for commentary from CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress on whether the investment cycle may soon slow, as well as on Nvidia's visibility into the $1 trillion sales forecast Huang issued in March at its GTC conference for sales of its Blackwell and Rubin systems starting last year through 2027. Analysts also want an update on capital returns to shareholders. Nvidia currently pays a quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, resulting in a yield of 0.02%. It paid out $974 million in dividends in its fiscal year 2026, which ended in January. Nvidia repurchased $40.09 billion worth of stock last fiscal year and had $58.5 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization. A larger buyback would return cash, increase future per-share earnings by reducing the share count and not require future payouts beyond the authorization amount, while a dividend increase would signal confidence in demand but would commit the company to annual payouts.
Nvidia faces growing competition in the AI chip space from Advanced Micro Devices and custom silicon providers like Broadcom and Marvell, which work with large tech companies to design specialized chips.
Retailers Navigate Inflation Headwinds
Home Depot will kick off earnings on Tuesday morning, reporting against a backdrop of economic uncertainty that has hammered its stock to multiyear lows. Home Depot's same-store sales growth in the first quarter is expected to be 0.8%, according to FactSet. Revenue is expected to be $41.53 billion and earnings per share are expected to be $3.41. Analysts at Bernstein said they do not expect Home Depot to revise its full-year guidance of flat to 2% same-store sales growth, saying the forecast "contemplated a wide range of scenarios." When Home Depot reported fourth-quarter results in February, it was just a few days before the start of the Iran war, which has muddied the economic backdrop and rekindled inflation. The stock has been crushed since February, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate started climbing higher, and now trades at multiyear lows.
Bernstein also said Home Depot's SRS Distribution subsidiary may benefit from storm-related repair activity in the quarter. Home Depot acquired SRS in 2024 as part of an aggressive push to court professional contractors who rely on wholesale distributors. It also just finalized the acquisition of an HVAC distributor.
Fellow retailer TJX Companies is expected to report Wednesday morning. Wall Street expects same-store sales growth of 4.1% in the quarter, and investors will be watching for continued growth in transactions. Revenue is expected to be $13.98 billion and earnings per share are expected to be $1.01. The company is also expected to comment on freight costs. In recent quarters, TJX's margins had benefited from declining freight rates, but those rates have gone the wrong way because of the Iran war.
Google's AI Showcase
Alphabet will host its annual I/O developer conference on Tuesday and Wednesday, and also will hold its Google Marketing Live event on Wednesday. Alphabet's I/O conference is expected to strengthen Google's AI positioning, though Bank of America analysts warned that the lack of a "wow" announcement could pressure the stock. Rumors suggest Google may unveil or tease its Gemini 4 AI model, following the success of Gemini 3 in November, which sent shares rallying. Investors will also watch for how Google weaves AI into its other offerings, including updates on new agentic AI capabilities, robotics, AI wearables such as smart glasses and the broader rollout of Waymo.
Google Marketing Live on Wednesday will be watched for commentary on AI monetization and new advertising tools. CEO Sundar Pichai said on the company's first-quarter earnings call that queries are already at an all-time high and that AI usage is driving Google Search usage. Google's in-house TPU chips are key to its AI efforts, but since the company just unveiled the eighth-generation family at a Google Cloud event in late April, there are low expectations for major silicon news.
The week ahead also includes Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, initial jobless claims and housing starts on Thursday, and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Additional earnings reports include Target, Lowe's, Walmart, and Deere.
Why This Matters:
This week's earnings calendar arrives at a moment when investors are demanding proof that massive technology investments translate into sustainable profits and shareholder returns, not just revenue growth. Nvidia's capital allocation decisions will signal whether management believes the AI boom has staying power or requires defensive positioning. For retailers, results will reveal whether consumer spending can withstand inflation reignited by geopolitical conflict and rising mortgage rates that have already pushed Home Depot to multiyear lows. The contrast between technology companies flush with cash and traditional businesses squeezed by rising costs illustrates the diverging fortunes across the economy. Google's ability to monetize AI through advertising will test whether these investments can generate returns beyond pure infrastructure plays, while Fed minutes and economic data will provide critical context for whether current market valuations can be sustained amid persistent inflation pressures.