The United States Justice Department is preparing to seek an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, a move that escalates imperial pressure on Havana following military action in Venezuela earlier this year that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This legal maneuver, which would require grand jury approval, comes amid rising tensions this year between the Trump administration and Cuba's government, as the US simultaneously navigates an uneasy ceasefire in its war against Iran. The potential indictment is reportedly connected to Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 shootdown of four planes operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue, at a time when Castro served as defense minister.
Escalating Economic Warfare
The US has intensified its economic warfare against Cuba. On January 30, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a tariff on any goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a measure designed to further cripple the island's economy. This action followed Secretary of State Marco Rubio's declaration on January 4 that Cuba’s government was “in a lot of trouble,” a day after the Venezuela operation. President Trump had also renewed calls for an American takeover of the Danish territory of Greenland.
On January 11, Trump warned the Cuban government to “make a deal BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” as the close ally of Venezuela braced for potential unrest after Maduro was deposed. Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, responded directly to this imperial posturing, stating, “Those who turn everything into a business, even human lives, have no moral authority to point the finger at Cuba in any way, absolutely in any way.”
The US administration continued its aggressive rhetoric and actions. On February 27, President Trump spoke of talks with Havana and raised the possibility of a “friendly takeover of Cuba,” though he provided no specific details. He indicated that Rubio was engaged in "very high level" discussions with Cuban leaders, signaling a critical juncture in relations with Washington's long-standing adversary.
The State's Role in Coercion
The US state apparatus has deployed various tools to exert control. Sometime in February, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro’s grandson known as “Raúlito,” secretly met with Secretary Rubio on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community summit in St. Kitts. These clandestine meetings continued, with news emerging on April 17 of a renewed diplomatic push involving an American delegation meeting Cuban government officials, marking at least the third such encounter with Rodríguez Castro. A senior State Department official also met with Rodríguez Castro earlier in April.
On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Rodríguez Castro, Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas, and the head of Cuban intelligence services. Discussions focused on intelligence cooperation, economic stability, and security issues, revealing the deep state's involvement in managing imperial interests.
Despite these engagements, the US maintained its coercive stance. On May 7, US officials stated that while no imminent military action was planned against Havana, President Trump had repeatedly threatened that “Cuba is next,” suggesting that American warships deployed in the Middle East for the Iran conflict could return via the island. These officials also revealed an offer of tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid, two years of free Starlink internet access for all Cubans, agricultural assistance, and infrastructure support. However, this offer came with conditions that the Cuban government has long resisted, even after the Trump administration imposed new sanctions, exposing the aid as a lever for structural change rather than genuine support.
Cuban Resistance and Liberal Inadequacy
Cuba has consistently rejected imperial ultimatums. On March 13, President Díaz-Canel confirmed talks with the US, stating they were “aimed at finding solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences.” However, on April 9, he affirmed he would not resign, reiterating this stance on April 12 in an interview where he stated the US had no valid reason for military attack or to depose him, warning of the cost and regional security implications of an invasion.
On April 16, Díaz-Canel addressed hundreds at a rally commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution’s socialist essence. He declared, “The moment is extremely challenging and calls upon us once again...to be ready to confront serious threats, including military aggression. We do not want it, but it is our duty to prepare to avoid it and, if it becomes inevitable, to defeat it.”
Further demonstrating Cuba's resolve, on April 23, Cuban Ambassador to the U.N. Ernesto Soberón Guzmán stated that Havana would not abide by any American “ultimatums” to release political prisoners, emphasizing that internal issues regarding detainees “are not on the negotiating table.” This rejection came as the release of political prisoners was a key US demand in the first discussions between the adversaries in a decade.
The limitations of reform within the US political system were starkly revealed on April 28, when Senate Republicans rejected legislation from Democrats that would have required Trump to end the US energy blockade on Cuba without congressional approval. This vote underscored how the ruling party continues to back Trump’s unilateral projection of American force in global conflicts, including Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba, one of its closest neighbors, thereby preserving the mechanisms of imperial power. Meanwhile, a sanctioned Russian oil tanker arrived in Cuba on March 31, providing the island with fuel for the first time in three months, highlighting Cuba's efforts to circumvent the blockade.