The United States Justice Department is preparing to seek an indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, a move that could significantly escalate tensions with Havana and represents a direct challenge to the island nation's sovereignty, according to reports. This legal action unfolds amidst intensified U.S. pressure and a series of high-level, often clandestine, discussions between American and Cuban officials, raising concerns about national self-determination as calls for a “friendly takeover” of the sovereign nation persist.
The potential indictment is linked to Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 shootdown of four planes operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue, at a time when Castro served as defense minister. Three individuals familiar with the matter confirmed the Justice Department’s preparations on May 15, speaking anonymously due to the ongoing investigation.
This legal maneuver comes amidst rising tensions this year between President Donald Trump’s administration and Cuba’s government, occurring while the United States remains in an uneasy ceasefire in its war against Iran.
Elite Maneuvers and Demands
On Jan. 4, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Cuba’s government was “in a lot of trouble,” a day after military action in Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Concurrently, President Trump renewed calls for an American takeover of the Danish territory of Greenland, signaling a broader agenda of territorial and national acquisition.
President Trump issued a warning to the Cuban government on Jan. 11, urging it “to make a deal BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” as the close ally of Venezuela braced for potential unrest following Maduro’s deposition. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly countered these external pressures, stating, “Those who turn everything into a business, even human lives, have no moral authority to point the finger at Cuba in any way, absolutely in any way.”
Further economic pressure was applied on Jan. 30 when President Trump signed an executive order to impose a tariff on goods from any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba, a measure designed to further cripple the island's economy.
In February, President Trump spoke of the U.S. being in talks with Havana and floated the possibility of a “friendly takeover of Cuba,” without providing specifics, while indicating that Secretary Rubio was engaged in discussions with Cuban leaders “at a very high level.” These high-level engagements included a secret meeting sometime in February between Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro known as “Raúlito,” and Secretary Rubio, held on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community summit in St. Kitts.
On March 13, President Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuba and the U.S. had held talks, acknowledging widespread speculation about discussions with the Trump administration amidst an energy crisis, and noting that “International factors facilitated these exchanges.”
Sovereignty Under Siege
On April 17, news emerged of an American delegation meeting Cuban government officials, marking at least the third such encounter involving Rodríguez Castro, though Secretary Rubio was not part of this specific delegation. A senior State Department official had met with Rodríguez Castro earlier in the month.
Cuban Ambassador to the U.N. Ernesto Soberón Guzmán stated on April 23 that Havana would not accept any American “ultimatums” regarding the release of political prisoners, a key U.S. demand, emphasizing that internal issues were “not on the negotiating table.” The release of political prisoners was a central U.S. demand in discussions, marking the first time in a decade such talks were held in Cuba.
On April 28, Senate Republicans rejected Democratic legislation aimed at requiring President Trump to end the U.S. energy blockade on Cuba without congressional approval, thereby supporting the President’s unilateral exertion of American force in various global conflicts, including Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.
Despite President Trump’s repeated threats that “Cuba is next,” U.S. officials on May 7 indicated no imminent military action against Havana, even as American warships from the Iran conflict were considered for deployment near the island. These officials also expressed pessimism regarding Cuba’s acceptance of an offer including tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid, two years of free Starlink internet access, agricultural assistance, and infrastructure support, all contingent on conditions Cuba has historically resisted, even after new sanctions were imposed.
On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Raúl Castro’s grandson, Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas, and the head of Cuban intelligence services, to discuss intelligence cooperation, economic stability, and security issues.
The People's Resistance
On March 31, the island received its first fuel shipment in three months with the arrival of a sanctioned Russian oil tanker. President Díaz-Canel publicly affirmed on April 9 that he would not resign, reiterating this stance on April 12 in an interview where he asserted the U.S. had no valid reason for military action or to depose him, warning of the cost and regional security implications of an invasion.
On April 16, President Díaz-Canel addressed a rally of hundreds, commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution’s socialist essence, declaring, “The moment is extremely challenging and calls upon us once again, as on April 16, 1961, to be ready to confront serious threats, including military aggression. We do not want it, but it is our duty to prepare to avoid it and, if it becomes inevitable, to defeat it.”