Indonesia Fires Leave Neighbors Facing Haze

Fires in Indonesia have sent smoke haze across Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. Singapore recorded 13 consecutive days of unhealthy air readings, its longest continuous stretch since the 2015 haze crisis. Ben Churchill, director of the WMO regional office for Asia and the Pacific, said the episode could last weeks or months, until winds change and rain reaches the fires.

Cross-border consequences

Churchill told The Straits Times the ongoing El Niño was on track to be the strongest ever observed. The phenomenon brings hotter, drier weather to the equatorial ASEAN region, and its onset has coincided with the region’s dry season. Churchill called the conditions “the perfect storm” for fires to persist and spread.

He said fires break out when people clear land through traditional slash-and-burn practices. About half of the world’s smoke haze originated in Indonesia during the seven days from Oct. 8, Churchill said, citing the European Union’s Copernicus programme’s Fire Emissions Watch service, which monitors Earth using satellite data and other sources.

Singapore considers air quality unhealthy when its Pollutant Standards Index exceeds 100 at any point in any part of the country. “We’re seeing more and more unhealthy days and hours creeping in. My expectation is that this will continue,” Churchill said.

At a press conference on Oct. 16, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu warned that the country should prepare for prolonged haze and that air quality could breach hazardous levels. Fu said conditions might improve when winds become lighter and more variable, expected in three to four weeks. A reprieve might come closer to the end of the year, she said, when winds shift from their current southerly direction to blow from the north and push haze away from Singapore.

Regional response

Churchill said countries should cooperate on early warnings and forecasts so people can protect themselves, then work together to tackle fires and prevent future episodes from reaching such extreme levels. He proposed that ASEAN pool firefighting resources by investing in equipment member states could share, exchanging technical expertise and enabling crews from neighbouring countries to deploy rapidly.

Fu said she had contacted her Indonesian counterpart, Environment Minister Jumhur Hidayat, to offer civilian assistance for firefighting and cloud seeding. Churchill also cited Australia’s reciprocal disaster-management arrangements with New Zealand, the United States and Canada, which let countries deploy and quickly integrate support personnel and equipment.

Churchill said similar agricultural practices exist in other Southeast Asian countries. “We’re looking at Indonesia right now, of course, but this could have happened anywhere to anyone at any time, based on the preconditions that we were seeing with global warming, as well as the compounding effect of El Niño,” he said.

Forecast and longer-term measures

Churchill said monsoon rains later in the year offered the only relief beyond active firefighting. The wet phase of the north-east monsoon brings higher rainfall to Southeast Asia around December. He said uncertainty remained over when the seasonal transition would occur because research showed strong El Niño conditions usually disrupt such shifts.

The Straits Times reported on Oct. 2 that the ongoing El Niño would likely delay the dry season’s retreat. Singapore’s weatherman said the transition could happen in late October or November. “It might be a little bit variable, but it will come,” Churchill said, adding that an updated forecast would be presented at the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum in late October.

Churchill said the WMO had warned in June that a strong El Niño would develop in 2026. He said early notice of impending weather events needed to reach policymakers planning infrastructure, the agricultural sector and individuals. He attributed more frequent and intense El Niño events and severe transboundary haze episodes to human-driven climate change.

Churchill said changing land practices, tightening regulations and educating farmers and companies responsible for fires could help safeguard safety, security and prosperity for the ASEAN community. “The very best is not always enough,” he said, describing the hope that monsoon rain would help bring relief.