Trinidad Balances U.S. Power, CARICOM and Gas

U.S. rules for Venezuelan energy activity require taxes and royalties owed to Venezuela’s government or state oil company to go into an account designated by the U.S. Treasury. That condition directly affects Trinidad and Tobago’s plans to secure gas across the shared sea border. Energy exports provide more than 70% of the island republic’s foreign-exchange earnings, according to its 2027 budget statement.

Energy and external control

The United States announced general licences for certain oil and gas activities in Venezuela and along the shared maritime border on Feb. 13, 2026. The licences establish a legal framework for those activities, but Venezuelan taxes and royalties must go into an account designated by the U.S. Treasury. So the government’s gas outlook depends on domestic projects and possible cross-border supply.

Trinidad and Tobago produced about 2.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day in early 2026, down from a peak of 4.4 billion in 2014. The budget statement tied the decline to the permanent closure of Atlantic LNG Train 1 and several petrochemical plants. Central Bank data put first-quarter 2026 output at 2.43 billion cubic feet a day.

The budget expects new domestic gas from the Aphrodite and Manatee Plus fields in 2027. Manatee Plus is due to produce first gas in late 2027, with peak output of 600 million cubic feet a day. BP’s local arm secured a licence for Loran Phase II and agreed to buy Woodside’s 70% stake in the Calypso field. Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo said the Loran licence could let the country monetize potentially more than 4 trillion cubic feet of cross-border and regional gas through existing infrastructure.

On Sept. 9, Kamla Persad-Bissessar said she expected Venezuelan gas to reach Trinidad and Tobago within a year, citing agreements with BP and talks with Shell. No new gas contract had been published. Washington revoked licences for the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields in April 2025, then granted a six-month Dragon licence in October 2025. The licences behind any deal could change.

Regional ties and sovereignty disputes

Trinidad and Tobago is one of four founding members of CARICOM under the Treaty of Chaguaramas, signed July 4, 1973. CARICOM has 15 member states and eight associate members. The country is also one of 33 members of CELAC, established in Caracas in December 2011, and hosts the Caribbean Court of Justice and the Association of Caribbean States in Port of Spain.

Relations with CARICOM have grown strained. Persad-Bissessar left the February 2026 summit in Saint Kitts early, before leaders extended Secretary-General Carla Barnett’s term, and skipped a special meeting on April 10. Her government argued that the reappointment breached the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas because it wasn’t on the agenda and the Community Council had made no recommendation. Summit chair Terrance Drew of Saint Kitts and Nevis said leaders had acted by the required majority.

At the July summit in Saint Lucia, leaders agreed to seek an advisory opinion from the Caribbean Court of Justice under Article 212 of the treaty. The communique said the status quo would remain until the Community considered the opinion. On July 28, the Court said it had received no request. No opinion had been issued, and no hearing date was public as of that date.

Washington and Caracas

The United States is a security and trade partner. The governments signed a Status of Forces Agreement in December 2024, according to Trinidad’s Newsday. On Dec. 15, 2025, the foreign ministry approved U.S. military aircraft using Piarco and ANR Robinson airports for what the United States described as logistics and personnel rotations. The approval gave no end date. A U.S. radar that arrived in Tobago in November 2025 had been dismantled by March 16, 2026; the foreign ministry hadn’t said what U.S. presence remained.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Persad-Bissessar in Basseterre on Feb. 25, 2026, and called Trinidad and Tobago a strong U.S. partner in the Caribbean. A State Department readout said both sides reaffirmed cooperation on energy security and drug and firearms trafficking. Persad-Bissessar has publicly supported U.S. military operations in the southern Caribbean Sea, a position many CARICOM leaders didn’t share.

After Foreign Minister Sobers visited Venezuela, the two governments issued a joint statement on Sept. 3 describing a “new era” and setting out a roadmap covering trade, energy, agriculture, the environment, culture and collective security. Persad-Bissessar and Delcy Rodríguez met in New York on Sept. 23 on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly. Their statement said the Venezuelan side indicated Persad-Bissessar was persona grata in Venezuela, and the leaders agreed to make official visits to Caracas and Port of Spain. No dates had been announced.

The economic stakes are substantial for a country with a population of 1,367,764 in 2025 and a US$25.9 billion economy. The Central Statistical Office measured a 0.5% contraction in 2025, while the Ministry of Finance reported real output fell 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026. The revised fiscal 2026 estimate showed a TT$7 billion deficit. The 2027 budget projected revenue of TT$59.729 billion and a deficit of TT$3.639 billion, or 2.1% of gross domestic product.