Gas Capital Shapes Trinidad's Regional Alliances

Energy exports provide more than 70% of Trinidad and Tobago's foreign-exchange earnings, but natural-gas output in early 2026 remained 45% below its 2014 peak. In its 2027 budget, the government tied recovery to new domestic gas projects and possible cross-border supply. BP's local arm secured a licence for Loran Phase II and agreed to buy Woodside's 70% stake in the Calypso field.

The budget statement tied falling gas output to the permanent closure of Atlantic LNG Train 1 and several petrochemical plants. Central Bank data showed output at 2.43 billion cubic feet a day in the first quarter of 2026, against 4.4 billion at the 2014 peak.

Gas, licences and revenue

The budget expects the Aphrodite and Manatee Plus fields to supply new domestic gas in 2027. Manatee Plus is due to produce first gas in late 2027, with peak output of 600 million cubic feet a day.

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo's statement said the Loran licence could let the country monetize potentially more than 4 trillion cubic feet of cross-border and regional gas through existing infrastructure. It points to a possible supply and revenue stream, but no new Venezuelan gas contract had been published.

On Feb. 13, 2026, the United States announced general licences for certain oil and gas activities in Venezuela and along the shared sea border. The conditions require taxes and royalties owed to Venezuela's government or its state oil company to go into an account designated by the U.S. Treasury.

The government also faces a fiscal deficit as it plans around energy revenues. The revised fiscal 2026 estimate showed a deficit of TT$7 billion, about US$1.03 billion. For fiscal 2027, the budget projected revenue of TT$59.729 billion and a deficit of TT$3.639 billion, about US$0.54 billion, or 2.1% of gross domestic product.

The projections assume oil at US$77 a barrel and gas at US$5.00 per million British thermal units. The budget calls these planning assumptions, not market forecasts.

Economic pressure and trade

The Central Statistical Office measured a 0.5% economic contraction in 2025. The Ministry of Finance reported that real output fell 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026, while headline inflation averaged 0.3% in the second quarter.

Trinidad and Tobago's economy totaled US$25.9 billion in 2025, about 0.35% of the region's US$7.4 trillion total. Income per person was US$18,967, above the regional figure of US$11,095. Those figures place the country among the region's higher-income economies, but the source's economic data don't detail how energy earnings or contraction were distributed among workers and households.

According to the Census Bureau, U.S. goods exports to Trinidad and Tobago reached US$3.12 billion in 2025, while imports were US$2.68 billion, leaving a U.S. trade surplus of US$446 million. From January to July 2026, the United States sold US$2.01 billion of goods to the islands and bought US$1.86 billion, for a surplus of US$159 million.

Diplomacy, security and regional blocs

The United States remains a security and trade partner. The two governments signed a Status of Forces Agreement in December 2024, according to Trinidad's Newsday. On Dec. 15, 2025, Trinidad and Tobago's foreign ministry approved U.S. military aircraft using Piarco and ANR Robinson airports for what the United States described as logistics and personnel rotations. The approval set no end date.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Kamla Persad-Bissessar in Basseterre on Feb. 25, 2026, calling Trinidad and Tobago a “strong U.S. partner in the Caribbean.” A State Department readout said both sides reaffirmed cooperation on energy security and drug and firearms trafficking. Persad-Bissessar has publicly backed U.S. military operations in the southern Caribbean Sea, a position many CARICOM leaders didn't share.

Relations with Venezuela changed after U.S. forces took Nicolás Maduro to New York on Jan. 3, 2026, and Delcy Rodríguez, previously vice president, took charge in Caracas. On Sept. 3, the two governments issued a joint statement describing a “new era” and laying out a roadmap on trade, energy, agriculture, the environment, culture and collective security. No official dates had been set for planned visits between Caracas and Port of Spain. Washington had said Venezuela wasn't ready for elections, and no election date was set.

Trinidad and Tobago's regional position also reflects strained ties within CARICOM. At the July 2026 summit in Saint Lucia, leaders agreed to seek an advisory opinion from the Caribbean Court of Justice over the dispute about Secretary-General Carla Barnett's term. As of July 28, the Court said it had received no request and had issued no opinion.