Sixty-nine percent of Americans say the war with Iran hasn’t been worth fighting, while President Donald Trump says the U.S. election calendar won’t drive his decisions. High gas prices and food costs are fueling disapproval ahead of the Nov. 3 election, as U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade send economic shocks through Tehran. The people paying the price have little say in decisions by governments and military command.
The Costs Behind the Blockade
A poll the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week found that 69% of Americans say the war hasn’t been worth fighting, up from 64% in July. Just 28% approve of Trump’s handling of Iran. Inflation, high gas prices and food costs are adding pressure at home. The blockade aims to keep Iranian oil from reaching markets.
Iran’s economy is in shambles. Its navy and air force have suffered devastating losses, and the conflict killed key political and military leaders in its first weeks. The rial continues to crater. Iranian state television announced this week that Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, recently resigned.
The pressure hasn’t forced Tehran to accept Washington’s terms. Iranian officials say there won’t be a deal until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief. They also say Iran must see the blockade end before it agrees to stop attacks on international oil tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.
War Without a Voter’s Veto
Trump has sent more military resources to the region and threatened to resume strikes, while declaring the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior” to Nov. 3. At the U.N. General Assembly, he said he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.” Campaigning in New York on Friday, he said: “Either they give us everything, or they don’t exist any longer.”
Trump’s stated goals have shifted from demanding unconditional surrender by Iran’s theocratic government to emphasizing economic pressure, containing Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly appeared close to ordering major new strikes, only to back down. The election may put control of Congress at stake, but Trump says it won’t set the terms of his war decisions.
Republican candidates are trying to address voters’ frustration without escaping the weight of Trump’s choices. Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers of Michigan said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn’t have to “foot the bill.” Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump’s war of choice.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, said Republicans can hardly separate themselves from Trump so close to Election Day. “It’s an enormous weight on Republicans,” Borick said. “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Negotiations Under Military Pressure
Negotiations remain stalled after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States met certain conditions. Iranian officials say they have since received a U.S. counterproposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expected Tehran to offer a formal reply within days; Trump called the indirect negotiations “productive” that day.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran wants to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which offered financial relief that never materialized. “We are trying to move the process forward. We are having conversations; every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again,” Pezeshkian said Thursday while meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan.
The military contest also reaches shipping routes. U.S. Central Command escorts tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at night, with their location systems turned off. Ship traffic remains far below prewar levels. Some operators willing to risk the route under Central Command’s protection charge $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers, while a military campaign launched by Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government seeks to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis have answered with drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure. Governments exert power over oil, shipping and the people who depend on them through the route, the blockade and the negotiations.
Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said Iran’s leaders doubt the United States would honor a deal, even if Trump signed it. Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said the midterms won’t fundamentally change relations: “They just might not agree regarding the method of confronting Iran. For that reason, the results won’t really create a foundational change in relations with Iran.”