Sixty-nine percent of Americans now say the war with Iran hasn’t been worth fighting, according to a poll the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week. That figure rose from 64% in July. Just 28% approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran.
The numbers come less than a month before the Nov. 3 election, which will determine whether Trump’s party keeps control of Congress. Trump insists the election calendar isn’t steering his decisions. Iran’s leaders say the same. Meanwhile, the war has lasted seven months, and Americans are feeling the cost at gas pumps and grocery stores.
The Cost at Home
Inflation and high gas prices are driving widespread disapproval, making the war a tough subject for Republican candidates facing frustrated voters. Rising food costs are adding to that frustration.
Some Republicans are already breaking ranks. Mike Rogers, the party’s Senate candidate in Michigan, said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, who’s in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn’t have to “foot the bill” for the war. Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution meant to curtail what the source describes as Trump’s war of choice.
But this late in the race, candidates can’t easily distance themselves from the president. Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, called the war “an enormous weight on Republicans.” He added: “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
A Campaign Trail Ultimatum
At last month’s U.N. General Assembly, Trump told fellow world leaders he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.” Yet more than a week into a 32-day campaign blitz for Republican candidates, he’s told voters he’s winning the war and stands ready to “finish it off” if Iran doesn’t capitulate. “Iran will be very quick one way or the other,” Trump said Friday while campaigning in New York. “Either they give us everything, or they don’t exist any longer.”
Trump has also declared the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior” to Nov. 3, even as he sends more military resources to the region and threatens to resume strikes. His stated goals have shifted: He first demanded unconditional surrender by Iran’s theocratic government, then emphasized economic pressure, containing Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly come close to ordering major new strikes, then backed down.
Talks Stall, Shipping Costs Soar
U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil are causing profound shocks to Tehran’s economy. Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, recently resigned, and the rial continues to crater. Still, Iranian officials say no deal will come until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief.
Negotiations appeared stalled after Trump publicly rejected Iran’s proposal late last month to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States met certain conditions. Iranian officials say they’ve since received a U.S. counterproposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expected a formal reply within days, while Trump called the indirect talks “productive.”
Trust remains thin. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which promised financial relief that never materialized. “We are having conversations; every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again,” he said Thursday while meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan. Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said Iran’s leadership worries that “the U.S., especially in the Trump era, will not be compliant to any deal even if he himself signs it.”
At sea, the picture is mixed. U.S. Central Command escorts tankers through the strait at night with their location systems turned off. Gulf oil shipments have risen, which Trump cites as proof that Iran will soon have to give way. But Iran has recently stepped up attacks on tankers, and ship traffic remains far below prewar levels. Some operators willing to risk the route charge $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
The region is growing more combustible. Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government have launched a military campaign to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical route for oil and other goods. The Houthis have answered with drone and missile strikes on Saudi airports and key infrastructure.
Mahdi Mohammadi, a Tehran-based analyst and adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, called the indirect talks “serious” but predicted “the war will start” again soon.
Why This Matters: A war that a large majority of Americans say wasn’t worth fighting continues to shape prices at the pump and grocery store, while the people absorbing those costs didn’t vote on the conflict. Seven House Republicans backing a war powers resolution points to an unresolved question about congressional oversight of military action. Abroad, shipping costs of $1 million a day and a widening fight around the Bab el-Mandeb strait show how one conflict can ripple through global trade. Analyst Hamzeh Safavi of the University of Tehran says both parties share a view of confronting Iran, so the election may change the method more than the direction. Voters, though, are paying for it.