Seven months into the war with Iran, President Donald Trump says the Nov. 3 election won't dictate his next move. Tehran says the same. Yet inflation, high gas prices and food costs are pressing hard on Republican candidates, and a new poll shows how much the conflict has cost the president politically.
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 69% of Americans say the war hasn't been worth fighting, up slightly from 64% in July. Just 28% approve of Trump's handling of Iran. The midterms will decide whether his party keeps control of Congress.
The Pressure Campaign
Washington's leverage comes from economic pressure. U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil are delivering what the source describes as profound shocks to Tehran's economy. Iran's economy is in shambles. Its navy and air force have suffered devastating losses, and the conflict killed key political and military leaders in its first weeks. The rial continues to crater, and Iranian state television recently reported that Iran's oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, resigned.
Trump says the blockade has brought Tehran to the brink. At rallies he has pointed to a recent increase in Gulf oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as proof Iran's leadership will soon have to capitulate. U.S. Central Command now escorts tankers through the waterway at night with their location systems turned off. Iran has lost its near-chokehold on oil flows.
The picture isn't tidy, though. Iran has recently stepped up attacks on tankers, and ship traffic remains far below prewar levels. Some operators willing to risk the route under Central Command's protection are charging $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say. That's a steep price for anyone moving oil, and consumers feel it eventually.
Diplomacy and Its Limits
Trump's stated goals have shifted from demanding unconditional surrender by Iran's theocratic government to emphasizing economic pressure, containing Tehran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He has sent more military resources to the region and threatened to resume strikes, while also declaring the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior" to Nov. 3.
On the campaign trail, he's been blunt. "Iran will be very quick one way or the other," Trump said Friday in New York. "Either they give us everything, or they don't exist any longer."
Negotiations appeared stalled after Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal late last month to quickly reopen the Strait if the United States met certain conditions. Iranian officials say they have since received a U.S. counterproposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expected a formal reply within days, and Trump called the indirect talks "productive."
Iran's public position is rigid. Officials say there won't be a deal until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief. "We are telling America, you have to act first. Enough talking, enough negotiations," said Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and secretary of Iran's top security body. President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which offered financial relief that never materialized. He also voiced doubt: "every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again." Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, predicted "the war will start" again soon.
Republicans Feel the Squeeze
The war is a hard sell for GOP candidates facing frustrated voters. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said the "war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly." Rep. Ashley Hinson, in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn't have to "foot the bill" for the war. Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump's war of choice.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, said separating from Trump this close to Election Day will be tough. "It's an enormous weight on Republicans," he said. "Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task."
There's a wider regional risk, too. Saudi Arabia and Yemen's government have launched a military campaign to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical route for oil and other goods. The Houthis have answered by hitting Saudi airports and key infrastructure with drone and missile strikes.
Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Iran gives little weight to the midterms. "Whether it's Democrats or Republicans, there is a shared view about the fundamental confrontation with Iran," he said. Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said Tehran worries that Trump "will not be compliant to any deal even if he himself signs it."
Why This Matters:
The war's costs are landing at the pump and the grocery store, and voters are noticing. Shipping rates of $1 million a day or more show how much a contested chokepoint can add to the price of energy. Those costs don't stay in the Gulf. For Republicans, the political bill arrives Nov. 3, with the open question of whether any deal can hold when each side says the other breaks its word. Iran's own analysts say a change in Congress wouldn't alter the underlying confrontation. That suggests the strategic problem, and its price tag for American households, will outlast the election.