U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil have battered Tehran’s economy, while Americans face high gas and food costs. The war hasn’t been worth fighting, say 69% of Americans. Published by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the poll found that 28% approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran. The Nov. 3 election will determine whether Trump’s party keeps control of Congress.
The costs of the war
Trump has sent more military resources to the region and threatened to resume strikes, while declaring the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior” to Nov. 3. At the U.N. General Assembly, he said he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.” On the campaign trail, he says he is winning and warns he’s ready to “finish it off” if Iran doesn’t capitulate.
“I will tell you what: Iran will be very quick one way or the other,” Trump said Friday while campaigning in New York. “Either they give us everything, or they don’t exist any longer.” His stated goals have shifted from demanding unconditional surrender by Iran’s theocratic government to emphasizing economic pressure, containing Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s economy is in shambles. Its navy and air force have been devastated, and key political and military leaders died in the conflict’s first weeks. The rial continues to crater, and Iranian state television announced that oil minister Mohsen Paknejad had resigned. Trump says the blockade aims to keep Iranian oil from reaching markets and has brought Tehran to the brink.
The blockade has also shaped negotiations. Iranian officials say there won’t be a deal until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief. Iran says the United States must lift the blockade before Iran agrees to stop attacks on international oil tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil routes and bargaining power
U.S. Central Command escorts tankers through the strait at night with their location systems turned off. Iran has lost its near-chokehold on oil flows, but ship traffic remains far below prewar levels as Iran steps up attacks on tankers. Some operators willing to risk the route under Central Command’s protection charge $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
Trump has pointed to increased Gulf oil shipments through the strait as evidence that Iran’s leadership will soon capitulate. Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government have launched a separate military campaign to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a route for oil and other goods. The Houthis have responded with drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure.
Iranian officials say they have received a U.S. counterproposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that Tehran expected to offer a formal reply within days; Trump called the indirect negotiations “productive.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which offered financial relief that never materialized. “Every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again,” Pezeshkian said Thursday while meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan.
Election pressure and political limits
The poll found that 69% of Americans say the war hasn’t been worth fighting, up from 64% in July. Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers of Michigan said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn’t have to “foot the bill.” Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump’s war of choice.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, said Republicans face difficulty separating themselves from Trump close to Election Day. “It’s an enormous weight on Republicans,” Borick said. “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said Iran’s leadership sees Trump as an unreliable narrator and doubts the United States will honor a deal. Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Iran sees Democrats and Republicans as sharing a view about the fundamental confrontation with Iran, even if they differ on the method. “The results won’t really create a foundational change in relations with Iran,” Safavi said.