A poll published last week found that 69% of Americans say the war with Iran hasn't been worth fighting, while the Nov. 3 election will determine whether President Donald Trump's party keeps control of Congress. Trump and Iran's leadership say the election calendar isn't driving their decisions, but the conflict has become a difficult issue for Republican candidates facing voters angry about high gas prices and food costs.
The Voter Test
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that 28% approve of Trump's handling of Iran. The share of Americans who say the war hasn't been worth fighting rose from 64% in July. Those figures place public opinion and the election alongside the administration's military and economic pressure on Tehran.
Trump has said the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior” to Nov. 3. At last month's U.N. General Assembly, he told world leaders he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran.” While campaigning in New York on Friday, he said Iran would be “very quick one way or the other,” adding: “Either they give us everything, or they don't exist any longer.”
Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers of Michigan said the “war with Iran needs to end — and end quickly.” Rep. Ashley Hinson, running in a competitive Senate race in Iowa, said Iowans shouldn't have to “foot the bill” for the war. Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution aimed at curtailing Trump's war of choice.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, said Republicans struggle to separate themselves from Trump close to Election Day. “It's an enormous weight on Republicans,” Borick said. “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Blockade, Talks and War Powers
The administration is pressuring Iran with economic sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian oil. Those measures are causing profound shocks to Tehran's economy, while Trump has sent more military resources to the region and threatened to resume strikes. He has described the blockade as bringing Tehran to the brink.
Iranian officials say there won't be a deal until the United States lifts the blockade and provides sanctions relief. They also say the blockade must end before Iran agrees to stop attacks on international oil tankers using the Strait of Hormuz. The dispute puts control of the blockade and the terms for ending hostilities at the center of negotiations.
Negotiations appeared stalled after Trump rejected Iran's proposal late last month to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions. Iranian officials say they have since received a U.S. counterproposal. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expected Tehran to offer a formal reply within days. Trump called the indirect negotiations “productive” that day.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants to return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which offered financial relief that never materialized. Meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan on Thursday, Pezeshkian said: “We are trying to move the process forward. We are having conversations; every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again.”
Pressure on Both Sides
Iran's economy is in shambles. Its navy and air force have been devastated, and the conflict's first weeks killed key political and military leaders. Still, Iran has remained resilient as Trump has repeatedly appeared close to ordering major new strikes, only to back down.
The U.S. Central Command escorts tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at night with their location systems turned off. Iran has lost its near-chokehold on oil flows, but ship traffic remains far below prewar levels, and Iran has recently stepped up attacks on tankers. Some operators willing to risk the route under U.S. protection charge $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen's government launched a separate military campaign to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis have responded with drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure.
Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said Iran's leaders view the United States as unreliable even when a deal is signed. Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Tehran sees a shared U.S. approach to confronting Iran across both parties, though their methods may differ. “For that reason, the results won't really create a foundational change in relations with Iran,” Safavi said.