Tariffs and War Push Workers’ Costs Into Midterms

Steve Train hauls 400 traps a day out of Casco Bay. “Everything we do in this business costs more money right now. These tariff wars are not helping us,” said the lobsterman. Maine’s lobster businesses face higher costs for traps, fuel, rope and bait as Republican candidates campaign ahead of the Nov. 3 congressional elections.

Costs Passed Down

Brooks Trap Mill, run by third-generation manufacturer and supplier Mark Brooks and his siblings, lost nearly $2 million in annual shipments to Canada virtually overnight after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney imposed 50% tariffs on U.S. lobster traps in September. The company has seven locations across Maine. The same week President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel, the domestic supplier of wire mesh used in Brooks’ traps raised prices by 20%.

Brooks said rising diesel prices, as the U.S. war with Iran escalated, brought freight surcharges and slower sales. His traps now sell for $180, compared with $130 two years ago. “We’ve eaten as much cost as we can to try to keep our prices down, but we just can’t eat any more than we have already,” he said.

AAA said diesel fuel for boats rose 67% statewide over the past year. Rope, much of it imported from India, and bait, largely from Europe, also cost more amid tariffs and higher fuel prices. Seven in 10 likely Maine voters said tariffs on Canadian goods were bad for the state, while 12% called them “a good thing,” according to a CNN poll last month.

Maine sends more than 40% of its exports to Canada and depends more than any other state on home heating oil. In a Suffolk University poll this month, more than 90% of likely Maine voters rated the state’s economy “fair” or “poor,” a majority said it was on the wrong track, and 57% gave Trump an unfavorable rating. Polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne showed Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins by an average of 2 percentage points.

Collins said she and Jackson would both have voted against the Canadian tariffs, but argued she had negotiated to remove certain items from the tariff list. Jackson replied, “I’m not going to give Sen. Collins credit for taking things off the list, when we should have never had a list. We shouldn’t be in a trade war with Canada.” Collins has pushed back against Trump administration duties and secured exemptions for concrete, wood pulp and road salt. Jackson has argued Congress should have prevented the tariffs. His campaign spokesperson, Maggie Amjad, called the duties “a tax on Maine families and small businesses.”

Canada left lobster off its retaliation list. Collins’ team said her meeting with Canada’s ambassador in Washington helped secure exclusions for lobster and seafood; Collins warned the tariffs “would have caused tremendous harm to Maine’s lobstermen.” Train credited Collins for helping the industry but faulted Trump for “bypassing Congress” to “issue executive orders to do things that cause us a problem.”

Campaigns and State Power

National polling found costs weighing on voters. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey found eight in 10 Americans rated the economy fair or poor, the highest share since December 2023. Sixty-three percent were pessimistic about the economy and its outlook. The survey found 80% said prices were rising, while 55% said they were rising faster than usual. Food costs concerned more respondents than gas, 34% to 23%.

Trump’s economic approval fell to 34%, while 65% disapproved, according to the survey. Its pollsters said Republican pessimism had risen: 35% of Republicans were pessimistic, up six points from July. Respondents preferred Democratic control of Congress 52% to 45%. Democrats led Republicans by 16 points on addressing food and grocery costs, and by four points on government corruption.

Republican candidates in competitive races have sought distance from some administration policies. In Michigan, Mike Rogers criticized the Canada tariffs and called for a quick end to the Iran war. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson opposed Trump’s temporary reduction of tariffs on imported ground beef, saying it would hurt U.S. cattle ranchers. Republican Senate hopefuls in New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio and Nebraska expressed concerns about Trump allowing Russian diesel imports after he had signed legislation to expand sanctions on Russia.

Iowa farm incomes fell 53% in the last three years, and Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies more than doubled in the past two years. In 2022, 7.7% of mid- to large-sized Iowa farms were considered financially vulnerable; by December 2025, the figure had more than doubled to 19%. Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek both said Trump’s tariffs could help Iowa farmers if they were narrower, and both said the Iran war must end because it was hurting farmers.

Trump planned to campaign in Sioux City on Thursday, Oct. 22. Hinson planned to join him, saying, “I’ll be President Trump’s ally when it is important for Iowa, but I will push back on him.” Turek said the tariffs and Iran war had “hurt Iowa more than any other state.” Decision Desk HQ figures showed Turek leading Hinson by less than a point, 46.7% to 46.3%; prediction markets favored Hinson.

The administration’s trade and military policies also figured in national views of congressional priorities. An AP-NORC poll found about eight in 10 registered voters wanted lowering the cost of living among Congress’s highest priorities, and roughly seven in 10 wanted Congress to prioritize ending the Iran war. About two in 10 wanted Congress to prioritize supporting Trump’s agenda. Trump separately announced an $8 billion farmer relief fund as farmers struggled with high prices driven by the Iran war and administration tariffs.

Campaign Spending and Voter Priorities

Voters ranked the economy and costs above cultural issues, but Republican candidates and groups spent more than $100 million on 200 ads referencing transgender issues since Aug. 1, according to AdImpact. A CNN/SSRS poll in September found 25% called transgender policies “extremely important”; the economy led, with 68% saying it was extremely important.

Ramiro Sarmiento, national press secretary for the Human Rights Campaign, said voters were tired of “the same recycled anti-trans attacks they’ve now seen for three consecutive election cycles.” He said Republicans had spent millions on ads about the transgender community without addressing rising living costs, gas prices, groceries and political corruption. In Texas, former Republican speaker of the Texas House Dade Phelan said such ads might turn off moderate, swing and lower-propensity voters more motivated by economic concerns.

The AP-NORC poll also found about half of voters prioritized reducing the budget deficit and finding common ground between parties. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democratic priorities included making life more affordable and conducting extensive oversight of the Trump administration. Justin Campbell, a 31-year-old Democrat from Brookhaven, Mississippi, said, “I’m not a millionaire and probably won’t ever be. I prefer policy that helps me instead of someone I’ll never be.”