Only 32% of Americans approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, a career low that held steady in a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday, Oct. 5. The figure matches a September survey, which had already marked his weakest showing. Kitchen-table costs, not culture-war fights, are driving the slide.
The Numbers Behind the Slump
The six-day poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults online nationwide, with a margin of error of about two percentage points. Registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans, 44% to 37%, less than a month before the November 3 election. Voters will decide control of both chambers of Congress for the final two years of Trump's current term.
Independents offer little comfort to the party in power. Democrats lead among them, 37% to 21%, though 28% say they haven't made up their minds. That's a sizable pool still in play.
Cost of Living Dominates
The poll report linked Trump's weakening support to high inflation triggered by his decision to go to war with Iran. Consumer prices spiked as gasoline and diesel costs surged after the conflict Trump launched in February. Cost of living ranked as the top issue for Americans deciding how to vote next month.
It's a familiar pattern. Pump prices climb. Household budgets tighten. Voters tend to punish whoever holds the White House, even when the policy's original rationale set events in motion.
Hispanic Voters Move Away
The sharpest warning sign for Republicans may come from Hispanic voters. Trump won nearly half of the Hispanic vote in the 2024 presidential contest, up from roughly one-third in 2020. That gain helped propel him to victory.
Now those gains are eroding. Just 24% of Hispanic Americans approve of his performance, the lowest share in either of his two presidential terms. Among Hispanic registered voters, 26% plan to vote Republican in the midterms, while 52% plan to vote Democratic. That's roughly double the Republican share and the largest Democratic advantage since Trump took office.
Older Voters Slip, Too
Republicans have also lost ground with a reliable bloc. Voters age 50 or older now prefer Trump's party over the Democratic Party by just 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%. In December, Republicans held an 8-point advantage with that group. Older Americans have historically made up large shares of the midterm electorate, making the narrowing especially consequential.
Among voters under age 50, Democrats lead by 18 points.
What Analysts Expect
Republicans are bracing for a difficult night. Many analysts had predicted Democrats would take a majority in the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate was increasingly seen as up for grabs.
Why This Matters: Voters judge economic stewardship at the ballot box, and this poll suggests they're doing exactly that. A war-driven spike in fuel prices has fed through to consumer inflation, and the political bill is arriving on schedule. If Democrats win the House, divided government would likely constrain the administration's agenda and shift the fight to spending, oversight and war powers. Markets and businesses tend to weigh gridlock against policy volatility, and both sides of that ledger carry costs. The shift among Hispanic and older voters also shows that coalitions built on one election's momentum aren't permanent. Parties that want durable majorities have to deliver stable prices and predictable governance, not just win a cycle.