Twenty-four percent of Hispanic Americans approved of President Donald Trump's performance, while 52% of Hispanic registered voters planned to vote Democratic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday, Oct. 5. The report tied waning support for Trump to Americans struggling with high inflation triggered by his decision to go to war with Iran. Consumers face the price increases. Republicans face the electoral consequences.
Who Pays for Rising Costs
The cost of living ranked as the top issue for Americans deciding how to vote next month, the poll found. Consumer inflation spiked after gasoline and diesel prices surged following the war with Iran that Trump launched in February. The poll report linked rising living costs with declining support for the president, but it didn't identify who benefited financially from higher prices or provide figures on company profits.
Trump's approval rating stood at 32% among Americans, unchanged from a September Reuters/Ipsos survey that recorded the lowest rating of his political career. Among Hispanic Americans, approval was 24%, the lowest share in either of Trump's two presidential terms. The six-day poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults online nationwide, with a margin of error of about two percentage points.
Hispanic voters helped propel Trump to victory in the 2024 presidential contest, when he won nearly half of their vote, compared with roughly one-third in the 2020 election. The latest poll found that 26% of Hispanic registered voters planned to vote Republican, while 52% planned to vote Democratic. That was about twice the Republican share and marked the largest Democratic advantage since Trump took office.
An Election Shaped by Living Costs
Registered voters preferred Democrats over Republicans by 44% to 37%, less than a month before the November 3 election. Among independent voters, Democrats led 37% to 21%, while 28% remained undecided. The election will determine control of both chambers of Congress during the last two years of Trump's current term.
Republicans braced for a difficult performance in the congressional elections. Many analysts had predicted Democrats would take a majority in the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate increasingly looked up for grabs. The poll measures voter preferences; it doesn't establish how either party would address the price increases tied to the war.
The shift also appeared among older voters, a group that has historically made up large shares of the midterm electorate. Voters age 50 or older preferred Trump's party over the Democratic Party by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%. In December, Republicans held an 8-point advantage among that age group. Among voters under age 50, Democrats led by 18 points.
The poll offers no account from workers or other consumers about how rising gasoline and diesel prices affected their lives, and reports no proposed response to inflation. It does show the cost of living ranked first among voting issues as prices rose after Trump's war with Iran, while Hispanic voters who had helped elect him planned to favor Democrats by a wide margin. The survey was conducted online nationwide; Jason Lange reported, and Scott Malone and Cynthia Osterman edited.