U.S. Strike on Qeshm Shows Who Controls the Strait

The U.S. military struck an Iranian anti-aircraft facility on Qeshm Island on Monday, and President Trump confirmed the attack Tuesday, calling it “minor” and saying it “wasn't war.” The strike came a day before the U.S. midterm elections, as Washington and Tehran pursued indirect talks through Qatari mediators. The military said the strikes on Qeshm and Hengam islands were defensive; the people living with the consequences of this conflict have no such power over when it expands.

Trump told Fox News the United States had watched Iran build the facility for roughly two months, then attacked once construction was complete. “We watched it get built, as soon as it was completed, we hit it last night very nicely,” he said. The facility reportedly included radar detectors and missile launchers. So much for the tidy separation between negotiation and military force: the strike landed while indirect talks continued.

The military’s version of “minor”

Qeshm sits in the Strait of Hormuz and is the biggest island in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military has previously targeted the island, which is home to a naval base and an underground missile site. Monday’s strikes also hit Hengam Island. The U.S. military described them as defensive, while Trump said Iran had no working airplanes or air defenses left after previous U.S. strikes.

“They have no airplanes. They have no anti-aircraft. We took some out last night,” Trump said. “It's just a minor attack. It wasn't war.” The labels belong to the officials ordering and describing the violence; the facts are that U.S. forces struck facilities on two islands in the Strait of Hormuz.

Talks under the shadow of force

Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said it was up to the United States to prevent a return to all-out war. Tehran had given Washington what he called a “firm and rational response” to demands concerning nuclear weapons and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He didn't specify which response he meant.

Vice President Vance reportedly reached out in recent days to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, in efforts to restart talks. Trump has sent mixed messages: for weeks he threatened major combat operations against Tehran after the midterms while also pushing for a peace deal. Vance said Monday that he and Trump “both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement.” Diplomacy proceeds alongside threats and airstrikes, with decisions concentrated among state officials.

The cost reaches beyond the negotiating table

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28 and led Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has driven fuel costs higher around the globe, an issue that has crippled the Republican Party ahead of the elections. The source describes that political cost, but the higher fuel costs reach people far beyond the party machinery now facing electoral pressure.

Iran has made concessions on reopening the strait or its nuclear program conditional on the United States lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and demanding a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, among other stipulations. Rezaei wrote on social media Tuesday: “America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them. Only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened.”