Fuel Market Needs Drive Russia Sanctions Relief

On Sunday, Oct. 18, Donald Trump defended waivers of sanctions on Russia, saying he wanted to keep Moscow at the bargaining table after blocking numerous sanctions just days before they were due to take effect. He also backed plans for Russian diesel to enter U.S. and global markets, linking sanctions policy to fuel prices and negotiations with Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the waivers would strengthen Russia’s war effort and hurt Ukraine.

Sanctions and the Diesel Market

Trump said on Truth Social that he was negotiating peace and didn’t want to drive Russia “away from the bargaining table.” His decision triggered significant diplomatic fallout between Trump and Zelenskyy over the past week. Trump defended sanctions relief as part of the bargaining process, even as Russian energy is positioned as a source of supply for markets facing higher fuel prices.

On October 9, Trump announced plans for Russia to supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to U.S. and global markets. He said the supply would address fuel prices that had risen since the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February. The move links the U.S. response to fuel costs with Russian diesel sales, while waivers aim to keep Moscow engaged in negotiations.

The war on Iran led Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, one-fifth of global energy exports had transited through the strait. Trump’s embrace of Russian energy angered Kyiv, European partners and many U.S. officials, who said it rewarded Moscow while its war against Ukraine continued. The source reports plans for diesel supply, but no completed delivery.

Ukraine Rejects the Waivers

Zelenskyy said on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that waiving sanctions “will hurt Ukraine.” He said the move would strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort. “We can’t compare me and Putin. He’s [an] aggressor. He occupied us. He killed adults and children, his soldiers. He’s a terrorist, and that’s why I hope that President Trump will be very clear with this position.”

Trump accused Zelenskyy of not wanting the war to end. He said Kyiv was attacking diesel refineries in Russia despite knowing the attacks were “seriously hurting the world diesel markets.” Trump wrote: “Zelenskyy doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him... he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did.” His statement puts European funding and attacks on Russian refineries at the center of his criticism of Kyiv.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022. The source describes the conflict as a four-and-a-half-year war. Trump says sanctions relief supports negotiations and keeps Russia at the table; Zelenskyy argues the waivers strengthen the forces attacking Ukraine.

Diplomacy Amid Energy Strikes

Zelenskyy said on X on Sunday that he had spoken with U.S. presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He described “virtually non-stop communication” between the countries’ teams about the “next steps in diplomacy.” He wrote: “We are doing everything on our part to make this happen, and to ensure that America’s position is strong and helps bring peace closer. Peace that everyone, except Russia, has been waiting for over the past four and a half years.”

The diplomatic exchanges came as Russia and Ukraine continued striking each other’s energy sites. Moscow’s attacks left thousands without power. Kyiv carried out the largest drone attack on Russia, in St Petersburg, since the war began. The report places the sanctions dispute, planned diesel supply and continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the same conflict, as fuel markets and diplomatic leverage shape public arguments over policy.