Negotiators in Washington had not emerged from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative by 5:30 p.m. ET Friday, as President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on hockey sticks, wine and other Canadian goods loomed over the talks. If no deal was reached by 12:01 a.m. ET on Saturday, 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of imports were set to switch on. That’s the blunt instrument on the table. Ordinary workers, farmers, shippers and businesses get to live with the consequences while the people at the top haggle behind closed doors.
Who Holds the Levers
Trump kept the pressure on with a mix of uncertainty and self-congratulation. Asked Friday afternoon whether the two countries had reached a deal that would avert the duties, he said, "I think so. We'll see," then added, "We have to take care of our farmers. Our farmers are very important to me." Before boarding Air Force One, he said, "The deal with Canada is moving along," and, "We should be able to have a deal with Canada." Three days earlier, he had already declared that the U.S. and Canada "have a deal" that only needed to be finalized. The story changes by the hour. The tariff threat doesn’t.
Canada said Friday afternoon it was still working to "resolve outstanding trade issues" with the U.S. A spokesperson for Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's trade minister for the U.S., said the "intensive discussions" were continuing "for the mutual benefit of both countries" after 1 p.m. ET. LeBlanc and chief Canadian trade negotiator Janice Charette had arrived at Greer's office around noon. LeBlanc did not speak to reporters on his way into the building. The public gets statements. The real bargaining happens in offices, with the clock set by power.
Who Pays for the Deadline
The 50% retaliatory tariffs were initially set to kick in Wednesday until Trump, in an eleventh-hour post on Truth Social, said he would postpone them for three days so Washington and Ottawa could finalize a tentative deal. His post signaled that the agreement was all but complete, "subject to the finalization of documents." But trade officials came out of additional rounds of talks in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday without a final deal in hand. Businesses warned that the duties could cripple their sales and that the threat alone had already taken a toll. That’s the hierarchy in plain sight: the threat comes from above, and the damage lands below.
LeBlanc told reporters Thursday afternoon, "We're very close," and, "We continue to make progress, and we're going to stay here and do the work that's necessary until we get to that point." He said Charette was still engaged in talks with Greer and other Trump administration officials. "Canadians expect us to get a deal that's in the economic interest of Canada and Canadian workers," LeBlanc said. That’s the language of managed survival, with workers left waiting for whatever the negotiators decide is acceptable.
What They’re Calling a Deal
Negotiators were tight-lipped about the specifics of a deal, as well as the remaining sticking points. Trump’s existing tariffs on imports of Canadian steel, aluminum and lumber were a central concern, The New York Times reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the talks. LeBlanc and his office declined to comment to CNBC on how the metals tariffs factor into the negotiations. Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. might agree to lower those duties and suggested that lower tariffs on Canadian autos might also be on the table. He also suggested that the deal could revive Keystone XL, the planned oil pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska that was scrapped in 2021 by then-President Joe Biden.
The Trump administration said Canada had committed to lower its trade barriers on the U.S., without offering specifics. Trump said Wednesday that Canadian tariffs "will be nonexistent for our farmers." Prime Minister Mark Carney said in an X post Wednesday, "We are now moving towards an agreement that reinforces that Canadian advantage, including by securing the best terms in each of Canada's most important strategic sectors and providing greater certainty about our future trading relationship." That’s the polished language of statecraft. Beneath it sits the same old arrangement: powerful officials negotiating over markets, sectors and access while everyone else absorbs the fallout.
The looming 50% tariff threat was partly based on the administration’s allegation that Canada discriminates against the U.S. dairy industry. Canada has not confirmed Trump’s claim. The tariffs were invoked last month under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which lets the president impose duties in response to discrimination or unfair commerce. The Great Depression-era law has rarely, if ever, been invoked, and it has been neglected for decades. Old laws, dusted off when useful. New threats, same machinery.
The whole thing now hangs on whether Washington and Ottawa can finish their paperwork before the deadline. If they can’t, the tariffs hit. If they can, the deal still serves the same system that turns trade into leverage and ordinary people into collateral.